Covid-19 Shutdown Tipping Point

[Scott Passman]

I think we've reached a tipping point where it's beginning to look like the economic shutdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing far more harm than the lives it (may) save.  While shutting down some businesses and social distancing has no doubt reduced transmission, slowed the progression, and reduced the number of lives lost, the second and third order effects of all the shutdowns and isolation is taking many more lives from things such as suicide, drug overdose, alcohol abuse, delayed testing/treatment for other life-threatening conditions etc. Nobody could ever calculate the exact numbers in any category because it's far too complex to get the data, but the basic premise we need to remember is that government officials are only reporting direct "lives saved" from their response and not factoring in other deaths that are occurring as a result of the response and those numbers likely offset a fair number of "lives saved" from the shutdown. 

There was another thread about this started a few weeks ago where I posted as initially being in favor of the shutdown at that time because too much was unknown and we needed to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.  Healthcare systems are starting to get more stocked on supplies and are in a better place to handle more of a surge.  26 million Americans unemployed already, supply chains and businesses failing left and right, currency debasement at unprecedented levels etc. is going to have so many more ramifications in years to come that I think we really need to start opening things back up again.  It doesn't have to be all or nothing, but we need to start opening up businesses and trying to restart the economy, not because of lost wealth, but because people need money to survive and the government printing money out of thin air and handing out with "strings attached" is not they way to do it. 

 I don't pretend to be an expert and know there is so much we don't know, but after 6 weeks of data collection and seeing how things are unfolding it appears to me that there is more upside to reopening than continuing the shutdown.   I know this is a very heated and emotional topic, but I'd love to hear what everyone else's thoughts are at this point while acknowledging that nobody has the answer and that we're all bringing a different perspective to the conversation.