Anybody know a good, accurate criminal search provider?                 

Since the property is currently vacant, all those numbers are currently 0.After rehab and occupancy, assuming the numbers he listed were accurate and assuming the 50% rule, the NOI would be about $54,000, the cap rate would be about 12%, and the ROI numbers would be dependent on specific financing terms.I don't know where this building is, but assuming a local cap rate of 10%, the ARV would be somewhere in the $500-600K range, so a purchase price of $250K with $150K repairs isn't a huge discount, and probably not enough that he'd be able to easily wholesale the property.That said, market conditions in the specific location would contribute; if apartments are selling for a premium in that area, it might be a good deal...

Maybe you can contact someone at the bank immediately after the foreclosure sale and tell them you're interested in the property.Also, if your appraisal and rehab costs were from 14 months ago, they may no longer be accurate.

The key is to give an accurate representation of the scenario and should the seller consequently agree, then your risk is geatly diminished.

If you're gambling on huge future appreciation, flyover country is not the place to be.

The only reason I could see item 2 not being accurate is if this costs on the order of a small house purchase to set up.

I like gambling analogies for real estate because, despite all the mumbo jumbo that sometimes gets thrown around, luck is a huge factor in your actual returns.

I have found a few accurate phone numbers and email addresses for free on this site.  

And the cash flow was really negative not positive because the expense numbers were never correct in the beginning.All this led to the 50% rule which is a good one and pretty dog gone accurate..

So, that's about my minimum for buying a rental.OTOH, I don't want to be dealing with a tenant for just $10 a month, even if that is getting me a 20% cash on cash return.As to your question, the number your asking about, in gambling terms, is called "variance".