How are you detetmining when we are close to a peak in the housing market?

Recently I got on auction.com and found some very interesting properties that peaked my interest.

Every single buy I made after Phoenix turned out to be a huge win including those bought at the previous peak of 2008....

If you bought now, it would be near peak.

Vacancy starts to rise in March and peaks for us in July and start to regress back down as winter approaches.  

That said, home prices haven't reached all the way back to peak levels so it has upside. 

REI experience also helps an engineer to better understand the client's priorities and financial considerations...bringing up cap rates or accelerated depreciation opportunity will peak interest!

Even though I believe rates have peaked, and when they come down we will see another bull run in housing values, I think there is lots of uncertainty and people should make sure decisions work still when they incorporate downside risk into their underwriting. 

Let's say market has significant drop from peak, 30-40% or more.

Most of our properties are in Arizona, which is very seasonal  Q1 is peak and summer is the lowest