Just from the pro forma info in the listings if I ignore their expenses and simply substitute a 50% rule and apply the same cap they did and keep their proforma rents, it often comes out at something between one-half and two-thirds their asking price.

Pro forma cap rates need to be in excess of 8-9% for me to get excited.

Again, others might feel differently here.3) property level due diligence: (takes seconds to weeks per deal): here is where I drill in with the low-level details.a) pro forma popping: I examine all the assumptions, and see if they are overoptimistic or not.

So anyone who knows the program will likely shy away form a 203K offer...I know I likely would having experienced one. 

And then I usually add a safety factor (for example I will apply 1.5 X or 2x stress) since it's possible future recession could be worse.I take the pro forma at the worst point (which is usually year zero) and then apply that stress and see if I could live with the results or not.2) I tie this into a timing bucket portfolio allocation strategy to keep cash flow steady.

Brandon Turner himself he mentions he will almost never cash flow form a 1% deal. 

I'll tell you this, on any given year I have some units that perform better than my pro-forma and some that perform worse.

Whats the best way to account for capital expenditures on a 10 year pro forma?  

If you'd like to do this properly then I'd say form a company with your direct lender where they are active (easiest way) and your new company can lend to your potential flip clients.

I think the risk in this model.. is exactly what happened to my 80 YO mother.. she gets a letter form a company in CA.. informing her of tax overages in a county.Well we had subdivisions in 4 CA counties so we narrowed that down..