accurately until they answer my "how many points?"

If you're a turn key company and I am an interested buyer I would love to see you present an accurate monthly return with these factored in.

I also looked up market rent and it was accurate. 

Michael Sarrail I think "overpriced" can be subject to quite a few "ifs"...If the rebah was done well...If there are non-investor-sold-turnkey comps used in the appraisal...If the management is good...If the tenant quality selection is solid...If the pro-forma is truly accurate (accounts for cap-ex)...You'll read plenty of success stories and plenty of horror stories.

If my Arv is 200k and the flip will take 6 months, that formula gives me 4K to cover those costs which is very accurate for that kind of deal.  

The loan, tax, insurance are based off units that I currently own and are fairly accurate. 

You should be more accurate on your ARV numbers or you'll run into some big problems later when you're not in a rising market.

Here are the numbers I have from the seller:22 2 BR, 2 1 BR with 2 vacant needing rehab2 BR are at $495/m and 1 BR at 445/m currently100% occupancy would be $11,780/m or $141,360/yrExpenses:Garbage - $1356.80/m - $16,281.60/yrWater - $2800/m - $33,600/yr (I would most likely stop paying this and pass to tenants if bought)Taxes - $10,700/yrIns - $8660.64/yrVacancy 10% - $14,136/yrProp Mgmt 7% - $9895.20/yrNet Cap is 5% at a higher asking price of about a million; I am told I can get it for closer to $700k prior to listingAfter upgrades and increased rents to $850/2br and $650/1br, GMI increases to $20,000/m or $240,000/yrI've checked the rent comps and they seem accurate, but I also don't know where someone might fudge a little. 

Previous responses are accurate.

@Andrew Boettcher - yes I do like that return :)  However, I started wondering if that was painting an accurate picture.