Multi-Unit Noob-Need Advice on first MF-24 Unit Please

[Matt Pulliam]

I've been presented with an off-market deal for a 24 unit complex, but I'm not sure if the numbers look good or can be better since I've really only done SFH investing prior to this. I've run the numbers through the calculators on BP, but want to know if I'm missing something. Also, I don't really have a concept for how much renovations/upgrades for something this large might look. Here are the numbers I have from the seller:

22 2 BR, 2 1 BR with 2 vacant needing rehab

2 BR are at $495/m and 1 BR at 445/m currently

100% occupancy would be $11,780/m or $141,360/yr

Expenses:

Garbage - $1356.80/m - $16,281.60/yr

Water - $2800/m - $33,600/yr (I would most likely stop paying this and pass to tenants if bought)

Taxes - $10,700/yr

Ins - $8660.64/yr

Vacancy 10% - $14,136/yr

Prop Mgmt 7% - $9895.20/yr

Net Cap is 5% at a higher asking price of about a million; I am told I can get it for closer to $700k prior to listing

After upgrades and increased rents to $850/2br and $650/1br, GMI increases to $20,000/m or $240,000/yr

I've checked the rent comps and they seem accurate, but I also don't know where someone might fudge a little. 

One major number I'm missing is how much it would cost to rehab to get me up to the increased rents, but it wouldn't be a stainless steel, top tier type upgrade. As it sits currently, with only about $20,000 in rehab costs, it would only cash flow about $500 according to BP calcs. After upgrades, with rehab set at $50k, it's a much better cash flow. Also, I have no idea how I'd finance such a deal right now, but it might be about 10% of my own money and finance the rest. Not sure if I can get owner financing as this is very new. 

Any help/advice is appreciated. Thanks in advance!

[Andrew Johnson]

Matt Pulliam Here's the massive risk in your analysis, you assume you can raise rents 71% after some rehab.

$850 - $495 = $355
$355 / $495 = 71.7%

You're crazy if you think you'll keeping any of your current tenants at $850 so plan for 100% turnover. And he very

I'd also look at actual *collected* rents at current rates. I'm going to guess that for a full year (as for 2016) it's going to be far under 90% (current vacancy).

Your posit is that the area can support a 71% increase in rents. If they can't collect 90%+ on current rents (should be a bargain for the area) you have to come up with thoughts on the rent pool for the area, it can support $850, if tenants with income to support $850 will want to live on that block, etc.

And - to be intentionally glib - almost all deals will pencil out if some rehab will support a 71% increase in gross revenues.