Not (Inflated ARV * 0.85) - Underestimated Repairs. 

I'd also rather not pay $147k off a potentially inflated appraisal for a $141k house.

Deals look a lot better if you assume 4% annual inflation in years 4 & 5, compared to if you assume 1-2%.I also like to look at cost per door compared to other recent transactions to see if they're really getting as good a deal on the property today as they say.

However, my payment is never going to go up, but over time, with inflation and the growing market in the city you invest in you'll be able to raise the rent.

What you specifically want to look for is the useful life on all large capex items covered by the HOA (roofs, walls, community areas, etc) and to ensure that the reserves held aside to replace these items adequately cover the cost of these items.You also want to be wary of poor practices by the board (embezzlement, conflicts of interest in vendors) that can inflate costs.In general, I don't like HOAs because they reduce the amount by which a house can appreciate. 

I expect your cash flow numbers a a bit inflated.

First is that appraisals are starting to come back not so great on some deals (signs of the market inflating) or the lenders are wanting you to demonstrate your basis in the property so they can make sure you still have skin in the game which defeats the purpose of BRRR. 

.- Rent increases with inflation.401(k) obviously have the matching contributions which is nice.It is never a bad idea to diversify rather than putting everything in one asset class.

Since it is NNN obviously the NOI is going to be the rent and use an inflated cap rate since there are only 6 years left on the lease.

I have worked in the real estate industry within NJ for over 13 years and I can tell you that NY / NJ metro and California are Extremely over inflated from my experience.