That rule is just a way to predict future expenses, capital and vacancy.

If your loan is low enough, as a lender you don’t have to predict ARV too precisely.

There is no reason to even say anything to the in-laws, except for "no thanks, I found something else to rent"I can predict hard feelings if you try to negotiate and I suspect they will be difficult to deal with, in any case.

I tend to view it as the predictable result of the fed inflating our way out of a depression.

And it's 11 degrees with -25 degree windchill predicted.  

While we are more successful than I ever dreamed we are not on the path I would have ever predicted.

You can not predict the future.  

As for the cap rate, the highs and lows of 2016 are 6% and 5.2% (see Patrice Menard Annual Report (French)).I personnaly don't give a lot of credit about market prediction.

Personally, I wouldn't spend too much time focusing on what might happen and trying to predict the prices and market.

I live in a town where there is a predicted oil boom, already the housing prices have gone up at least 20k over the past 2 years.