I would expect to walk away with about 15-20k after the dust settles from this deal.This is obviously an over-simplification, but I think it's a fairly reasonable expectation for a first flip.

Is the 501 C 3 in the bag?

Not familiar with MI, but Cali has a mixed bag of originators as well.

I'm sure that people tried to time the SoCal market in the early 80s and were left holding the bag after the area grew steady for a decade or more.

Once the dust has settled I'll make another post to cover what went well, what went poorly and the lessons learned. 

The reason why you buy right is incase this happens you're not left with the bag and you certainly don't want to let it foreclosure and affect the mortgagee adversely.

Let me state something again for clarity: Most investors that have risen from the dust in the past ten or twenty years from Guru seminars and books take an entirely different approach to investing, it's more like seeking out ways to dig into the sellers' equity as deeply as you can to make it a good deal.

No disrespect here, I am not saying that your work is messy, especially without seeing it, but working in the business I can tell you that most drywall guys particularly finishers claim that any work that they have not done themselves is F*ed up “looks like a beaver to cut this board” and “did you spread this mud on with your face cause it’s almost as ugly” are two quotes I remember that don’t involve inappropriate comments about the size of the gaps in seams.I also agree if you are looking for perfection and to save time hire a pro, if not… try using the 20 and 45 min bags just mix what you can use before it begins to set and if it is very humid where you are working invest in a dehumidifier I couldn’t believe how much quicker everything dried; I was able to get 2-3 coats on a day, long days...if it is in the budget hire a pro.

Really that is the bottom line for the bank is, "what is this property worth if we are left holding the bag".

However at the end of the boom there were a lot of people, mostly novice investors, who were buying at the top of the market and they got let holding the bag.