But there's not enough of it to justify a turnkey provider being set up there (since their model is dependent on cash flow.- Since turnkey providers do a lot of the hard work for you (yay), you are left with choosing essentially two things: which provider to work with, and which market to buy in.

It sounds like the Lone Star project is on the rocks as of yesterday, but the area is still being gentrified and increasing in value, so it might still be a good place to employ your model.

He is waiting for my offer before he lists the property.In my feasibility study, I am using a model that assumes there's a demand for 7-8 sqft per person in the area.

You will have people in your life who like you and will act as role models, but you won't have anyone holding your hand from start to finish.

Rob Beardsley has a great book which is esentially a guide as to how to write your own underwriting model called "The Definitive Guide to Underwriting Multifamily Acquisitions".

Development is a lot more work and risk compared to this contrarian model and simply isn't worth the effort even if it is feasible. 

Depending on the property, I use a figure like 2% annual increases for the model.  

I love your model.

My guess is that as more and more start to encounter the issues you outlined above, they will start to follow a similar model to protect their time and efforts.

I had a fairly complicated model I was doing and same thing they approved me to quickly just send in 5k to go to the next level..