Texas is more speculation but that also works to get stronger yearly rents and cap compression which increases value for 2 to 4 units (hopefully) which is the comparable sales approach versus 5 plus units which is the income approach.

I really like the idea of a quick payday, however the problem with rehabbing is that it is a J-O-B and also very speculative.

If you bought in 2004, you may have been swept up in the tide of real estate speculation.

My reasoning for this probably belongs in a different forum, but basically I have no faith in the Dollar.Yes buying silver is a speculation just like buying that lot, but these days it is a speculation to keep your money in the bank.

Lastly, are you a well thought out longterm investor or short term speculator? 

Sacramento has gone way up in the past few years as people escape the bay area and having Fresno less than an hour away from the Silicon Valley via HSR could make that a great spot in a few years.So - buying on that speculation at some certain time in the future seems like it could be good.  

@Brett Woodall, I'm a terrible speculator and I suck at predicting.

@Devin Wynn "the property does not increase in value"Buying based on speculation is a slippery slope imo

A 20% IRR deal isn't better than a 12% IRR deal if the lower return is a low-risk stabilized property in a great neighborhood and the higher return is a speculative development project in a sleepy market. 

We do have some clients speculating on the possible social economic changes to come, post covid.