For the 10 year period spanning December 2014-2024, single-family prices in Austin nearly doubled, yielding an annualized appreciation rate of ~9.4% in that period.With inflation close to its 2% target and an uptick in the labor market, The Federal Reserve may be taking a break from rate cuts.

If you’re using leverage, be extra cautious with your underwriting to ensure the deal still works at today’s rates.Economic Uncertainty: Inflation, potential recessions, or shifts in demand could affect rents, vacancy rates, and property values in some markets.Increased Operating Costs: Rising insurance premiums, property taxes, and maintenance costs can cut into profit margins, particularly for buy-and-hold investments.Regulatory Risks: Some areas are increasing restrictions on landlords, particularly short-term rentals.

Leverage and invest at 40x $100 000 properties ($20k down + $5k closing cost, 30 yeas fix rate loan) with a return of 10% where you have better asset protection (my keeping lower equity and higher bank position), you are hedge against inflation (agree with me, in 30 years $1 000 000 purchasing power will be less compare than $1 000 000 today) Here is how looks mathematically:1. 10% on $1 000 000 (10x $100 000) = $100 000 / annually - No interest tax deduction- No loan paydown benefit2. 10% on 1 000 000 (40x $100 000) = $400 000 / annually - debt service + full tax benefits+ loan pay down+ hedge against inflation for 30 years+ better asset protection (by maintaining lower equity  position)   + (not guaranteed of course) if appreciation happens, it happens on the all full asset amount, example:If appreciate 10%:In case "1" you will have 10% on $1 000 000 = $1 100 000In case "2" you will have 10% on all 40x properties (40x $100 000 = 4 000 000) = $1 400 000As far as cash flow, as long you buy "right" CAP 8% and higher you will have stronger cash flow on leveraged asset + all additional benefits.

The developers pushing agents to sell one of their townhouses as a STR really inflated the asset cost cause they were pricing it on a revenue structure, not asset.

The GC does a lot of the odds and ends work of tying the place together.

Additional Info —Key Details:Location: Outside Santa Fe, NMProperty Size: 20 acres (valued at $80,000)Project: Two new STR unitsExisting Experience: Family has two fully-occupied LTRs nearby, generating $2,000/monthConstruction Approach: Self-contracted with licensed trades for electrical/plumbingCost Assumption: $80,000 per unit, plus ~20% for inflation (based on 5–8-year-old build costs)Financing: Using land equity as down payment on construction loan (expecting closing costs to be major expense)Request: Looking for feedback, potential pitfalls, and general guidance

It’s just going to slowing increase with inflation.  

I’ve only been given the information the marketer provided, and some of those numbers appear inflated.

Given the next 3 years have 10% inflation?  

Fun example: my business partner had an STR in Sedona with an oddly long laundry room.