Austin Market Report - December 2024

[David Ivy]

Happy New Year! The December 2024 report from the Austin Board of REALTORS® (ABoR) shows stable housing prices and balanced market conditions in the Austin metro as we reached year’s end. Here are some key highlights from the report, which compares December 2024 to December 2023:

• *The median sales price in the greater Austin metro rose slightly by 1.4% to $450,000. In the City of Austin, we saw a 6.5% increase to $575,000
• *Total sales increased 2.5% in the metro. In the city, closed sales were up 12.6%. This reflects continued demand despite economic headwinds
• *Pending sales increased 3.1% in the metro and decreased 2.2% in Austin proper.
• *There was 10.1% more listing inventory in the metro and a whopping 30.5% more active listings on the market in the City of Austin. This worked out to just under 4 months of available listing inventory in both the greater metro and the city itself. According to the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, we find a balanced real estate market at around 6.5 months of inventory. For most of 2024, we saw 5-6 months of inventory in the Austin area.

Here are the December 2024 for Austin and the greater metro:

Here’s a chart showing the median sales price of a single-family home in the City of Austin in 2024:

The median sales price for a single-family home in December 2024 was up roughly 9% from the beginning of the year. As listing inventory built up in the spring, prices softened a bit as we hit the summer months with an uptick toward the end of the year.

For broader context, here’s a chart of the median sales price of a single-family home in Austin over the past 10 years:

Compared to the recent price peak in May 2022, the median single-family home price in Austin is down approximately 17%. However, pricing in Austin is still substantially above pre-pandemic levels. In fact, the median sales price of a single-family home in the Austin metro is about 48% higher than it was at the start of 2020. For the 10 year period spanning December 2014-2024, single-family prices in Austin nearly doubled, yielding an annualized appreciation rate of ~9.4% in that period.

With inflation close to its 2% target and an uptick in the labor market, The Federal Reserve may be taking a break from rate cuts. The Fed’s cuts in 2024 initially moved mortgage rates downwards to their lowest level in nearly 20 months. However, rates have since moved upward.

A 30-year fixed rate mortgage is once again sitting around 7% interest:

For broader context, here’s a chart for 30-year fixed mortgage rates over the past 5 years:

The real estate industry hoped 2024 would see a recovery in which mortgage rates fell and home sales climbed. However, as we look back, we see that this didn’t pan out. For those still wondering why mortgage interest hasn’t moved down alongside the Fed’s rate cuts, see this WSJ article: If the Fed Is Cutting Rates, Why Aren’t Mortgage Rates Falling?

All else being equal, lower mortgage rates reduce the cost of ownership and, thereby, allow more people to afford to buy. For example, a buyer putting 20% down on a $500k home would pay around $500k in interest over the 30-year life of a typical mortgage at a rate around 6.5%. With an 8% mortgage rate, they would pay more than $650k in interest.

One major problem for both buyers and owners beyond mortgage rates is the rising cost of property tax and insurance. Here’s a chart showing what percentage of an American’s average mortgage payment goes to taxes and insurance:

Rising taxes and insurance premiums make real estate even less affordable for buyers already facing higher home prices and mortgage rates that rose ~150% in less than two years. Even if mortgage rates come down, rising property taxes and insurance show no sign of reversing. So, even if we see lower mortgage rates in 2025, falling rates won’t solve all the problems faced by buyers in current market conditions.

What if I’m a buyer? In many ways, this is the best market for buyers in Austin in years. There are more listings to choose from now than any other time in nearly a decade. Listings are selling for roughly 92% of their list price on average. Multiple offers situations are the rare exception, not the norm. Buyers have significantly more negotiating power. They can take time with their search and be more selective about a property’s location and condition. So, if interest rates are a buyer’s primary roadblock, then I recommend negotiating a rate buydown at a seller’s expense or looking at new construction, where builders are offering rate reductions and other substantial incentives.

What if I’m a seller? There is still strong demand for Austin area housing. Prices are still considerably higher than just a few years ago. However, it’s important to price competitively and be prepared for buyers to request concessions. Days on market are around 80 days on average, depending on the area. Many listings are adjusting their asking price at least once while on the market. But properties priced and marketed appropriately can still go under contract in a matter of days. Now is not the time to “test the market” with an ambitious price to “see what happens.” With the increased competition, it’s crucial to prepare your property to stand out and work to address obvious buyer objections prior to going on market.