Use the more conservative numbers.That is a huge HOA expense.HOA fees can go up and rules can change so be warned.

I have started to run my numbers more conservatively expecting lower appraisals.

I'm a conservative investor and for me this sponsor is an easy "no":1) I generally want to see at least one full real estate cycle experience in the exact strategy (and with little to no money lost). 

Overall this one will make me a better investor down the road, and has definitely made me more conservative when analyzing properties.

I would try to make sure a title company is involved, because if you go to sell it later, the title company for the sale may be too conservative about deeds that were recorded without being part of a title insurance policy, if that makes sense. 

I got an appraisal prior to starting and my numbers looks like this PP: 137kClosing costs:5kRenovation: 230kprojected holding costs: 26kARV: 620-650KEstimated rents: conservatively--> $4400/month.

As you imply: there is no set standard for "conservative", but my personal POV is we are going to be living with 6% interest rates for a while.  

I feel a rent increase is semi-conservatively 150 to 200 with new reno.   

Determine what your financial expectations are for an investment property, run your numbers very conservatively (and for gosh sake, include room for unexpected costs, even on a new build) and then see if it makes sense.

Included is estimated rent per room, a conservative estimate I am told, and by my own metrics and calculations and knowledge of the area, I would agree it is a conservative estimate.