My forecast is that it likely will perform worse than as an LTR after subtracting for a PM.  

They say I will be guaranteed rent each month minus any expenses they subtract out no matter if it is rented or no.

Even if you were to do an annual tax appeal, the price at which you purchased won't necessarily be a big factor; a recent appraisal or recently sold comparables will be used.Your annual water number sounds very low.You omitted trash and sewer.You omitted rental license and inspection.I don't think you'll want to spend $200 on advertising, given that there are lots of free internet sites that you can use.Just because there are houses asking for $1250 in rents does not mean that they are seeing that number; sometimes they over-ask so that they get the maximum possible when Section 8 takes the voucher amount and subtracts utilities; Norristown 3 bedroom vouchers are netting landlords ~ 950 depending.

Since they sold for X amount, you can assume (after adding or subtracting for specific features) that your property will sell for Y.

What amenities do they offer that you can also add/subtract from your property?

For the moment let's leave out what I paid for the land, because it will vary and in any event it is easy to subtract that amount at the end. 

Subtract sale expenses (attorney fee, broker commission, flip tax, etc.), you could hypothetically net around $70-75,000.Re-investing the $70-75K upstate (i.e.

If negative you'll subtract that against your debt.

The insurance company gives you money to replace your property, but subtracts depreciation from each item!

Subtract 2 from 1.