I realize that last paragraph involves a lot of speculation but any insights you guys have would be greatly appreciated!

Without knowing the facts and circumstances, it's impossible to speculate any further. 

So I'd like to find  higher end properties bought well, find good tenants, and hope for appreciation and income down the road when my earned income is lower, Some might call that speculation, but that's where I am.  

Many parts of California are speculative.

Many speculative builders lost it all.

You can see good appreciation if the area improves and becomes more of an owner-occupant area but that is of course speculative.

One of the main points that I recognized throughout the entire excerpt is to avoid speculation, either by thinking that the market will swing to your favor or just by getting "in love" with the property.

'speculating' over the long term ... perhaps.I see it as a reenforcement of why I evaluate properties based on their cash flow and model them using either a flat price or slight depreciation {inflation adjusted}.After all, you wouldn't buy a business on the expectation you will sell it for more 10 - 20 years down the road.

I am thinking out loud and could be speculating incorrectly but this is all we have to work with.While we cannot know for sure what the payment amount is without seeing the note, any modification or forbearance agreement or simply getting the information from the borrower or the servicer, we can make a couple of assumptions and get in the church.

1-4 residential for appraisal purposes puts more weight on the comparable sales approach. 5 plus units more consideration is put on the income approach for valuation.The purchasers who buy breaking even and hoping for strong rent growth year over year to create eventual cash flow are speculators and not investors.