Are a ready sources of equity if needed and create large cash reserves from the start.If the market turns or experiences a rental issue (non paying renter) , cash buyers survive, BRRRR buyers experience negative cash flow and risk their whole portfolio unzippering.Historically the real estate market contracts and rebounds on a 7 to 10 year cycle The last botton was 2007-20019 so we are due or overdue another contraction (loss of equity)Your appreciation scenario does not include the contraction cycles.In addition long term holding assumes that your exit strategy (selling your holdings) will end on a up cycle, there is a better then 35-45% possibility that you will loose your equity.Also your scenario assumes you do not use the property to purchase other properties, thereby by definition it is not a BRRRR, and if it is you end up with a property that has up to 80% of its equity tied up in another property.A simple spreadsheet will show you that purchasing one 100K cash property  rented at 1000 per month  has a 1000 per month cash flow at the end of 32 years you will have bought another property every 8 years and you end up with 4 paid off properties that now cash flow 4000 per month without the risk to capital.In the end Cash Buyers sleep better, work shorter hours and vacation more in Aruba.I have a friend in Baltimore who started the same year as I did and he has 3 times the properties I do.

That lends itself to be a much better play for some one like you, who can use six, maybe seven figures to build a reasonably diverse portfolio in the state and, if they win, great, but if it turns south or takes more time than predicted to work out, has the ability to carry the investment until it rebounds or can take the haircut and go about life.

This report confirms that while activity may have bounced back in the first phase of the recovery, the employment rebound has been lagging.

But whatever happened, Bay area had the tenacity to overcome and prices always rebounded. 

STRs have actually rebounded.

That said, builders are still dealing with headwinds which have been hampering a sharper rebound.

What if the Corona virus has a rebound and the economy goes in the dumps.  

My savings rebounded rapidly, but real estate was appreciating like crazy (Seattle area) and I was priced out of the market.

I have investors who demand monthly tracking of cities/counties, appreciation/trends....a good example is May to June - with drop in unit sales in CA in April/May & price not really affected, July suddenly saw a crazy rebound in terms of field activity, every house out there is a bidding war right now 

And buyer traffic more than doubled in one month even as builders report growing online and phone inquiries stemming from the outbreak.”See the source here: https://www.nahb.org/News-and-Economics/Industry-News/Press-Releases/2020/06/Builder-Confidence-Surges-in-June-as-Housing-Rebound-is-UnderwayJustin, I think you made a point and I agree with you that this time is challenging for a lot of people including investors.