By nature a business is all about cash flow, equity is second.

Then since your out of control your subject to human nature.

The key factor is the amount paid and the nature of the payment, not the payment method.

I also assume a 3-4% yearly rent increase, which naturally increases the vacancy and repair amounts over time.

While it’s not impossible to close in mid December and still meet all requirements of the STR loophole, it will be extremely difficult due to the nature of hitting 150 hours, having it rented for 15 days or greater and having the avg stay be no greater than 7 days and not a decimal more.

Based on the local market, $15k for renovations seems light—have you had contractors confirm this budget? 

Hey Joshua,I'm currently in the throws of a development project in Brooklyn, and the $300 a sf model is a little light, especially if you plan on decent finishes. 

In Canada, for example, the average mortgage term is 5-years, so every 5-years you renew your mortgage and have the opportunity to pay down as much as you would like (if you wanted to pay more than the payment restrictions of a fixed-rate mortgage).If you want to pay down your mortgage more quickly and cannot afford to increase your payment, simply switching from the default monthly mortgage payment to accelerated bi-weekly payments will reduce your amortization by ~12% (the extra payment per year from the accelerated part) and reduce the overall interest paid by slightly more (~14%).Naturally, if you increase the bi-weekly payment, you will pay down the mortgage more quickly.  

I think it is human nature to feel like we need to get the best deal with the best/highest "immediate return".

To have enough discretionary funds to be able to invest at this level means that even if a deal goes completely down the drain, I can still feed my family, tithe to my church, pay my bills, and try again later.I do appreciate the probing nature of your questions!