.: @Justin Buckner.... i do think a 40% reduction in prices or rents is very, very unlikely.To predict housing prices/rents WONT drop by 40% anytime soon is like predicting the sun will rise in the East, not the N,W or S tomorrow morning...... 

Markets move in cycles, so someone who predicts a downturn will always be right - eventually.

I'm ready to buy but according to Financial Times, markets are predicting 1 full percentage drop in rates this year.

We decided on a % and they are stoked because they wanted in the long run this property to be a gameday house for football games etc.

Many Multi-family properties now in debt service trouble as the GPs took out very risky 2-3 yr floating rate or adjustable loans so they could cash flow after buying very expensive 3Cap apartments, which loans have gone from 1.5% to 5% or higher, and knowing that obvious and predictable risk since every primate could see mega-inflation coming in early 2021 due to more money printed in 2 yrs than first 200 yrs of country, They "smartly" took out Rate Cap insurance, (cost 50k for a 12 month policy on 10mil loan to cap variable insurance rise about 1-1.5% above the origination level) but now that US 10yr up 10x from 0.31 in 3/2020 to 4.2%, that same insurance policy is 1.5-2.0 million not 50K, so They can't cover the much higher debt service nor buy new cap insurance without shutting down distributions or capital calls.

I think trying to figure all of that out and predict cash flow is really kind of going down the rabbit hole. 

CoC RoI is hard to predict because I am trying to do the deal without putting cash down.

I'm a newbie and need to hear market predictions to quell my fears of buying my first property at this time.

I question if their intent is to pander to constituents to get votes rather than make decisions in their constituents best interests.Here is some predictions: 1) rent for existing tenants will go up max allowed increase 2) rents for turned over units will go up far higher than the historical average.  

It has fallen, but not to the level that I predicted.