After 5years, i would have already paid the loan down by $100k+ Appreciation: I don't want to gamble on the future value, but historically prices have been going up, the average appreciation of Las Vegas in the past 20yrs was 3.45% - the population is growing, tons of jobs created - however the city is surrounded by mountains, so there is only so much dirt left to build on.

Getting into RE without fully understanding what you are getting into is a gamble.

Over the years, I have been part of several discussions involving appreciation here on BP and even myself called it "gambling" way back when.

It is always a gamble but you do get your money back with interest.

My understanding is that hard money loans and flipping in general is a bit of a gamble.

My understanding is that hard money loans and flipping in general is a bit of a gamble.

(And I wouldn’t be able to hold the note long enough to pay down principle much.)Is this a gamble?

The deal you proposed would NOT make sense if you want cash flow.If you're looking for appreciation in the Taunton market, obviously that's a gamble. 

With that being said, unless you are very seasoned and have lots of extra cash, i wouldn’t gamble on an appreciation in this market.

Makes me shake my head that people are so desperate to get a loan that they will gamble their identity.