. 😁 HAHA True.... in san francisco's condo underwriting, it's now better deal than Phoenix or Miami.Some sub-market specific already in crashing mode. 

Thanks, Sam - I don't know if I fully subscribe to the 18 year real estate cycle, but a huge market crash is already in full swing in various CRE asset classes, including multifamily.

Several things to contribute here: 1) Private Lenders with no credit experience emerge doing down payment and 100%/High LTV financing at the end of every cycle, 2) they're among the first to loose their shirts in every downturn, 3) although someone termed this type of lending "gator", it's not new, 4) the guy that coined it didn't get into real estate untill well after the last crash, 5) he has no real credit background or experience (he's never been a lender), 6) Google the guy's name and "looses professional license in AZ" to see what pops up, and finally 7) he's really effective at telling people what they want to hear, filling their heads full of hopes and dreams, getting them to buy his training, and his minios generally won't want to hear what a real, seasoned lending vet will try to tell them.

@David Butler is it high risk though (aside from a depression) in 2008 crash and years following homes here half the size of mine were still selling for 600-700k.....When I look at my worst case ( I would have to sell alot of my rentals to pay the hard money back in full) But other than that, I dont see much risk other than my profits beginning to dwindle to a 100-200k loss....

Rather than a crash, I see a small correction and more flat line growth in the next 2-4 years. 

If you are seeking for prices to drop, I would not anticipate a crash with the hopes of timing the market.

So long as I am no crashing a ladies only get together :)

If the market crashes or something were to happen to you as investor, the banks are going to want to target someone who has a ton of equity in their property vs someone who is more leveraged.

Because the increase in inventory on that chart, it makes on feel FL is crashing, right.

So if we do have a small crash or large correction across enough markets, and rates came down to 4-5%, the people who are selling now at the discounts you are referring to will seem foolish as the valuations stabilize/rebound.