10 yr down 70bips in 4 weeks, 20 just today, and if Sahm rule violation/longest inverted yield curve ever/and M2 - 4% drawdown all have >95% correlations each with near term Recessions, then maybe long bonds may be safest place to be for a while.

Rates are coming down pretty hard however probably not quite as much as owner-occ / conventional and a bit muted more than treasury bonds considering the risks. 

There are logistical reasons whey other lenders aren't here including the recording process, Puerto Rico's bond rating and lack of MLS / Comps.  

Mortgage rates are driven by the capital market and basically follow the bond market, specifically 10 year US treasury with a premium, historically about 1,7%.Yesterday the 10yT fell to 3.9% and I have seen 5.99% 30y fixed rates with a local bank in here Milwaukee (that is still an inflated 2% premium), so 5.7% would be historically normal based on a 1.7% premium, even without the 10YT going any lower.Here is why.If the 10yT offers lower returns, more investors want to buy mortgage-backed securities instead to get higher returns (about 1.7% higher), as a consequence lowering the returns on those as well.

You pay taxes on 401k withdrawals whether you are 40 or 60, so the 10% penalty you get is what you have to factor in with your decision.It's impossible to say whether stocks/bonds in your 401k or real estate that you acquire will do better over the long haul.

I find that converting the property into a duplex is a lengthy and costly process, and I want to start renting it legally without going through a long process, because I've spent for rehabs and don't want to put in more for now.

Bottom line, this is a lengthy process and it sounds like you need the investors yesterday.

This figure includes the construction of the building but excludes land acquisition, permits, and other associated costs.Cost per Door (Unit)The cost per door, or per unit, in affordable housing projects can also vary widely based on the specifics of the project.Average Cost per Unit: Recent affordable apartment buildings built using public funds, such as Metro housing bond dollars, have cost between $412,000 and $522,000 per unit.

No real risk beyond just the risk that goes with having any stocks or bonds. 

I also get baby bonding through CA, which is paid family leave, and I plan to use this strategically to spend more time at home.When I buy the starter home, based on my calculations, I'd be saving around $6-7k per month.