The state has had perpetual drought since I was a kid.I know you won’t do it, but read the UNFCCC exec summary from the Kyoto Protocol written in the late 90s and specifically hone in on forecasts related to water scarcity and desertification.

A good chunk of my career of day jobs has been in analyzing data and forecasting the future.

Marcus, the event was great and I truly appreciated your market review and forecast.

. ~$13200  (forecast equity increase) -$4200 (cash flow) = $9k First year profit ideally that will increase annually.  

Now were back to a mare normal world where a person has to have that skill of forecasting, analysis, ability to "read the tea leaves" for where it's all going and if todays acquisition makes sense. 

Speaking from the Arizona perspective, we are experiencing continued growth, attracting lots of new residents (Californians choose Texas and Arizona as their top 2 places to move).Here's an economic forecast:https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/economy/2019/12/11/arizona-state-university-annual-economic-forecast-predicts-slower-growth/4398074002/Not sure where you are getting your "low rent" thoughts, maybe compared to CA.

In a nutshell, IL (where I live) too expensive of a market, but WI, MI, OH etc seems like you’d get more bang for your buck. also,  you can look at a City’s  consolidation plan and what their plans are for development to get a good forecasting of housing booms.

Forecasted performance is your best-case scenario and shouldn't be relied on, particularly in a tougher market like Memphis. 

Just finished attending webinars about Multifamily forecast in 2020.

Accelerated depreciation, taxable income forecasts, and running various numbers/scenarios.Point is that tax planning/financial planning is not the area to skimp.