I'm in the camp who likes to say appreciation is a gamble, but it seems important to find something that will at least hold its value.Thanks for your input!

A bit of a gamble.  

I for one do not want to gamble on my own or borrowed money in the mid 6 figures range, take on unknown risks that I have yet to understand (if you haven't done this before), for a paltry return.

If you don’t have means of making money you have to gamble on appreciation and should invest locally.

First off, most auctions you cannot walk through before you start bidding, so it is purely gambling (unless your luck is supernatural you won't last.)

You gambled - you lost.

I don't recall a city taking it harder on the chin than Vegas did, a place driven by gamblers and gambling.  

I don't invest for appreciation, that is gambling.

Every time that you refinance, you pay those costs and gamble on whether the property will appraise.

As was mentioned, seller may not be motivated enough, or not really get that their property isn't worth it...You could ask a ton of questions and just listen to see their timelines / if they are motivated.You could also give them 2 offers-- each with appraisal contingencies and say "I can pay via a loan but the appraisal has to match" if the thing is truly high, you can gamble (it if it's not off the wall price-wise.)Second offer could be: "I need you to hold the note."