I have no information on your area and what rents go for, but I would be careful on being overly optimistic on rent, make sure to back up your numbers with research on Zillow, craigslist, rentometer, etc.

I don't want to be too optimistic and assume I'm going to get it for 175k but at 130k the deal doesn't work. 

Are you optimistic that that will improve the area? 

.- No more then 3 yr option term, ideally 2 yr max.  1 yr is optimistic and any shorter it must be "GURU" talk. 

Trust me I’m all for tackling a tough project and remaining optimistic, but I would reconsider your renovation costs on this one.

Paul alright to be conservative with numbers since wholesalers tend to be overly optimistic.

Your overall Cash Flow analysis is a little too optimistic for me.  38% is not very conservative to start with.  6.  

When they told me how much they wanted, I felt they were a little optimistic with their asking price and their estimated rehab budget, but after a few rounds of negotiating over text, we agreed on a price that was $15k under their original asking.The numbers were:Purchase price: 80kseller repair estimate: 35kARV: 180k to 195kMy hard money lender would only lend up to 65% of the ARV and they chose to go with a conservative number at $175k, so based the 65% rule I had to be all in at $117, so that gave me a budget of $37k. 

I call it being optimistic, but in hindsight maybe I was being a bit naïve.

I dont know if I am being overly optimistic here so I need a dose of reality.