Having been neck deep in the 2 largest recessions in the past 20 years I can say that all the statistics and charting aside, the easiest and simplest way to determine if we are in a bubble is to get in a cab and ask the taxi driver if he is buying real estate, gold, tech stocks, crude oil, whatever.

So all I have to do to get a license in any other state is to pay the money and or do the simple state test I don't have to do the full federal test.Every state is different of course. .With Nevada being a stickler,  I had an opp to do some loans in Vegas and I put a spot on marketplace looking for a broker to do those for me ( nmls compliance)  and someone either turned me in  ( some BP broker from Vegas) or the state was trolling the site.. and I got a nasty gram from the Nevada lending division informing me that to do laons in their state required licensure ..

Beyond all of that simplistic stuff, the main ingredient that a bank will look at when refinancing out of a deal like this is simple: equity.If you are going to be refinancing this Note into a conventional mortgage product (30/30 terms) then you will need 20% equity in the property in order for them to make a refinance work, as conventional lenders will lend at a maximum LTV of 80% most of the time.However, if you were getting the new financing from a commercial/portfolio lender, the terms are different.

I talk with people that I meet about Real Estate and tell them about the simplest method that I know, after 40 years of owning properties.

Private lending might be the cleanest and simplest.

The simplest formula to forecast if prices are too high for the average buyer in a designated area is to evaluate and use the .gov economic statistic tools to your advantage.  

@Christopher Coleman ,I do have a friend who talked about how legalization is going to bring a wave of industrial hemp growth for industrial and consumer products (for those who don't know, this does not have the active ingredients of MJ/MM, and is not for smoking..)

Active ingredients: 3-phenoxylbenzyl, 2-dimethyl.You can buy online at doyourownpestcontrol.com@Matt Kowske

http://www.wwenvironmental.com/bug_juice_factsheet.php  -they all contain the same active ingredient "Deltamethrin"  http://npic.orst.edu/factsheets/DeltaGen.htmlHighly recommended

Stop cooking anything with the smelly ingredients.