What is historical occupancy?

I understand that historically, rates are pretty average, so i dont see them coming down much.America is significantly undersupplied in housing.

Also I am thinking now that these are small rural counties with population in the entire county probably no more than 50k or so.. at least with most of those folks living in the city of Oroville which is right on the border with British Columbia In my flying days I would go into Oroville to get through US customs compared to going into one of the airports Airports north of Seattle .

Good post with a few good ideas, thanks.A note about San Antonio, is that it historically has a big turnover in homes due to the military bases in the area.

Focusing on conservative estimates and fundamentals like location, schools, and market performance aligns with the way real estate has historically worked.

If curious, here are the last two: Jan 2023: Multifamily Real Estate is At Risk of CrashingFeb 2024: Multifamily is at High Risk of Continuing It's Historic CrashI think that the title for my 2025 analysis (likely Jan/Feb publication will be something more like:Multifamily is Finally Going to Hit Rock Bottom in Q2/Q3 2025 - Get Ready to Buy a LOT of itAs usual, I like to publish my draft thoughts here to get input from key players in the space and these forums, especially folks like @Brian Burke, to see if I am missing any high level areas, before I get into the weeds and look at the data more deeply and regionally. 

Biggest challenge was the two end buildings were added to the historical registry so I had to obtain historical commission approvals.

If rents go up ONLY LT historical average (4%), NOT post covid averages (post covid was 20%+ annually). 

I won't be investing in the riskiest/most supportable asset subclasses such as hotels, and tilt my portfolio the ones that have historically been more stable such as multifamily and single-family housing.

I also have columns for cash flow (true cash flow after historic avg expenses) and the most recent month's debt paydown.