Statistically speaking, the more the little interruptions occur, the more likely a big interruption is to occur. 

Do the research for those statistics in your area and use them in your calculations. 

and statistical projections in excel along with some more qualitative analysis once I had a short list developed (all based on the BiggerPockets body of knowledge!)

Good website that has a lot of statistics on crime rate, income, housing, unemployment, You can compare that to other cities you are researching and you will have alot of information to help your decision.

I saw that, but I'm much more concerned with this. https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspxI feel like this could just be a statistical anomaly based on job reports showing a short-term COVID loss, but I'm also being very cautious.  

https://www.louisvillerealtors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/June-2020-Press-Release-Google-Docs.pdfhttps://www.louisvillerealtors.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Month-at-a-Glance-June-2020.pdfhttps://www.louisviller...

This concern is legit, especially data and statistics of the economy and unemployment rate are not that great.

Statistically speaking, the chances of him losing money off a safer deal like that are very slim, plus it would be such low maintenance especially if hiring management. 

Knowing you, I assume you're being facetious, and I agree :)  Asking a question and then answering it yourself, using mostly anecdotal statements that don't really have any weight of statistical evidence behind them, would make me suspicious as well.

The statistic is that 90% of the cars on American roads today are financed.