Then I factor in the side issues that can impact any of the parts of the equation - the neighborhood for appreciation & ability to rent factors; known capital expense issues, or those known to be upcoming; interest rates; unusual maintenance needs (example: I strongly avoid homes without eaves); local property tax and insurance anomalies; ETC.In your example I would run from that house like I would from a grizzly.

You could end up like I did on that one property where the income drops so low that it only covers payroll, maintenance, property taxes, etc or you might get lucky and only experience less cash coming into your pocket than you are used to.Rising rates AND a bad economy would be an anomaly and likely wouldn't last, as monetary policy would likely reverse rates in an effort to stimulate the economy. 

Your returned letter is referred to as a 'nixie' in the direct response mail world.Many years ago I coined the term 'pre-probate' to describe any scenario such as yours that refers to real estate vested in name of deceased person prior to filing any probate court action.While this may appear to be an anomaly to you, I've made (and kept) several fortunes from capitalizing on the exact situation you've encountered. 

Otherwise, I would be wary.There are a couple of anomalies: Smoke Rise and Pine Lake.

I thought it was an anomaly when it started, but in the wake of my most recent mailing, it's happening again, and a lot more frequently.  

I think the easy transaction in July was an anomaly and crappy customer service is the norm.  

I’m a big fan of data driven analysis, but as some mentioned, the Harvey anomaly drives a fork into accurate extrapolation.I love Grimes county but schools end up being an issue for many renters with kids.  

That one time you heard an appraisal got changed was an anomaly, just like that one comp you found that supports your goals.All said, the only real chance you have with a reconsideration of value is IF you can dig up MULTIPLE sales that were sold off-market AND the APPRAISER is able to VERIFY the terms of sale.

I only have around $25K project money to my name, a listed property (needs rehab) out of state that is just sitting due to super high lakeshore levels (20-30 ft+ from cabin - 100/yr anomaly), and money tied up in other areas. 

There is demand and it can't be replaced with Class A new construction...Lastly, I am not exactly the smartest kid in class, but for what it's worth I am of the opinion that 2008 was an anomaly that we are not likely to see again in our lifetimes.