When its based on pure speculation then I think it can become destructive to other people's understanding if they don't understand that.People come on here and get advice that can drastically alter their lives, and I deeply respect the responsibility we all have in communicating our OPINIONS in that environment.

Conclusion is Shiller is making an arguement that people shouldn't speculate in real estate...I fully agree.

A good deal is a good deal.If I were to be more speculative, and I may, I'd put money on Mid-City, especially between La Cienega and Crenshaw and between Olympic and Washington.

I would speculate if oil continues to decline, you will see some sort of industry consolidation through M&A.

There is a lot missing and I guess it may be one of those things where speculating is only going to get me so far..

Speculation will cause some market volitility but the next FED meeting will hold teary once again.

In my opinion the only thing investing in CA makes sense is for flipping or speculating on appreciation.

I think they are speculating, which is too risky for me.

I hope you are shocked.Now, calmly, on the other hand, if you are just speculating, that is, you are just happy with the general rise in the market, as long as all the old owners remain optimistic enough to keep on sitting tight so that there are few sellers, as long as enough high-tech jobs continue to pour into Portland (doesn't have to be many), as long as there is money in China looking for a way to not just disappear into thin air as in China it might (because at least here in Seattle that source seems responsible for most of the price-raising buying activity), then sure, maybe you are happy to pay 5.5% for the privilege of gaining that speculative increase in equity. 

I would file city sewer in 5 years under speculation - who knows how long it will take the city?