But I also refine my model every time I get new data, and one day I'll find that the 50% rule is actually the 48% rule (or the 45% rule, or whatever) for me, based on my economies of scale, my location, my costs, my network of professionals, etc.My only point is that experienced investors should trust *their own* numbers (including experience and historical data) more than the seller's, the realtor's, or even the 50% rule.I think where we are disagreeing is, if an investor were to come on this board and said, "I have 100 properties with average OE of 44%, and I'm looking for another 100 properties...what OE should I use for my future analysis?"

Although they're in the crapper right how, stocks historically have returned about 10%.

Using historical data, census bureau for income and NAR for housing prices, from 1968 to 1999, housing prices averaged 2.769 times yearly income.

Historically, appreciation has matched inflation over the long term, with short term fluctuations.

If the property is located in a "Historic District' you should beware.

So I hold them expecting them to double in value about every 7 years (based on historical stats) and rent them out.

Based on historical prices I could afford to make an offer at the 1999 or 2000 price but that would be a big drop in the lendors price because of the way the market ballooned around here.

I will admit, however, that our market has not been as dismal as many others.How has GSM been historically in your area?

Will appreciation be a historic 3% to 5%?

It is crazy.We are in catastrophe mode of historic proportion in this country.