Advice Please

[Josh Carpenter]

Hi all. My name is Josh and I am a twenty year old college student. I've got my eye on a property now that is currently renting for $470 a month. It's a two bed, one bath with a one stall garage, and it's two blocks from my college. FSBO, they want $40,000 for it, although since it's been for sale for four months at that price I think I could wheedle them down to $35-37,000. I will do my best to obtain seller financing.

I have $5,000 cash I can put down. Assuming I buy it for $38,000, 33,000 would be left to be financed; for 30 years at 6.3% that is $210 a month.

Last year's taxes were $701. Insurance premiums run $766 a year.
Gross rents, with a 10% vacancy rate, would be $5,076. Assuming that maintenance and repairs will cost 20% of gross rents (I believe this number to be way north of what it will actually cost) we arrive at $1,015 for maintenance and repairs.
I will also have an extra $2,000 in a revolving CD ladder as a slush fund to fix whatever Murphy's Law throws at me.

So:

Gross rents: $5,076
Taxes: $701
Insurance: $766
Debt service: $2520
Maintenance and repairs: $1,015

Cash Flow: $74

I realize this will be basically a wash as far as cash flow for the first year, but I think I have all my bases covered as far as projecting what expenses will be. Do my numbers sound right? Would this be a good starter property to buy and hold, judging from your experience? My plan is to stay in my apartment for now and see if I can quickly get it rented; if for some terrible reason I can't get it rented for months on end, I can simply move out of my apartment and move into the place to avoid foreclosure/poverty.

Thank you in advance for any input.

Josh