COVID-19 has certainly impacted the real estate market this year and many are predicting it will affect 2021 as well.

From our discussions, targeting a 30% occupancy is what most people use for numbers and income predictions.

My biggest question is how do you typically get a sense of the ARV for BRRRR when predicting how much all-in to calculate the proper LTV?

The "rule" is not actually a rule, but just a prediction that states that you will PROBABLY have enough money if you consume 4% each year.  

(Being human, I’m just as likely to be wrong on predictions and timing as most other people of course.)So I think you should definitely just focus on what’s best for your own situation and “get a piece on the board” with a house hack if the numbers are acceptable to you, and then reevaluate where the market is, and you are, after that.

As it relates to lot rent vs park owned, the beauty of mobile home parks as an investment, is their ability to deliver predictable cash flow, regardless of what chaos is going on around us. 

If you can refinance it and use the funds to then go forward then you already have an extra property by not selling.It is hard to predict the future - nobody predicted a pandemic - and so if you have cashflow then I say stick with it and refinance instead. 

I predict the cost will be worth every penny.  

There are a lot of studies out there on this, or you can read Dan Ariely's "Predictably Irrational", but bottom line is that vastly more people are motivated by loss than by gain.

Not predicting this but if it does get bad  that's what i lived through personally..