Not another market crash post

[Nadir M.]

Hello everyone,

It’s obvious that there is lots of talk about this election, low interest rate, and sooner than later, another possible 2008 repeat.

I’m currently UC in the Midwest. Market in this area has definitely maxed out. This brings up my market crash question which I feel like is a very common question these days. My gut feeling is that we are in a bubble that will pop in the very near future. What’s everyone’s game plan? Buying or holding and waiting for market to run its course? If market does crash, I feel like there will be a new higher low?? I have contingencies on this contract I’m in. Wanted to get everyone’s feeling on this.

Thank you

[Jay Hinrichs]

Originally posted by @Forrest Faulconer:

@Nadir M.

As you said, lots of talk, here's the main BP market crash conversation: https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

Just discussed with my broker friend @Will Fraser, he expressed that perhaps holding onto some cash and waiting until BRRRRable properties are not selling 10% above their value would be wise, but if you like playing in the ball pit with all your friends, I get that! I am holding onto cash, investing is some areas of the market that have been hurt by COVID but should bounce back, and keeping my eye out for a great deal, if the numbers work then why not?

Forrest Faulconer

Key word here is CASH  if you have a major bubble burst credit will be the first to burst with it.. Investor loans will dry up just like 08 to 2011..  Cash will be the commodity and those with it will get the deals.. ERGO the hedgefunds stacking cash right now..

those who think they are going to wait and be able to get investor loans and the bottom might well find themselves locked out same with HELOC's many will get frozen so unless you evergreen them ahead of time you may not have that arrow in your quiver as well..

Just some things to think about and what I know for sure happened in the GFC.. which of course this bubble it appears to me is going to be on commercial assets. Not sure many think there is going to be a big play for SFR's

Although I do think the Idea of Wills about picking off some BRRR investors who find themselves un able to refi could be a play especially if they borrowed short term money.. that is EXACTLY what happened to all of us HML in 08 to 2011.. we got stuck.. no one could refi. And our borrowers lost their homes in droves.. I ended up owning about 200 SFRs in the mid west because of the credit freeze and no ones ability to refi a non owner occ loan..

Not predicting this but if it does get bad  that's what i lived through personally..