All hard to predict.

My agent, predictably, pushed back saying this isn’t market standard.

Mortgage paydown, is predictable, BUT you have all the same issues as appreciation because the value is locked up in your equity until you sell or refi.

Many investors with full time jobs and busy lives find they make more predictable cash flow and build more wealth investing passively.

Metrics like ROI and cash flow only predict how a property is likely to perform on day one under ideal conditions.

If the markets perform as predicted, the initial poor cash flow market will benefit from higher increasing rents and eventually have better cash flow than the market that had the initial better cash flow, but was expected to have less rent appreciation.In your local market it is easier to build and maintain your team, you have local first hand RE market knowledge, and you can more easily perform heroics if it is ever necessary.I recommend you take a second and third look at your local market. 

But I'm horrible at predicting anything accurately.And here's the dilema - Not doing the 1031 creates the exact market conditions you want to avoid

Though nobody can predict where the San Diego market is headed, it's extremely likely both home values and rents will continue their upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.

Vacancy is predicted to remain 6.0% or below through 2025.• Atlanta is expected to have one of the strongest rent growth recoveries in the nation in 2021 (7.0%), which can be attributed to the region’s employment opportunities, diverse economy and affordability.• A dwindling supply of affordable single-family housing units, combined with a resurgence in suburban demand bodes well for assets located throughout AtlantaIndustrial• Annual industrial absorption is expected to remain strong through 2022.

The barrier of entry is high for quality STNL's but it protects my downside and fits my investment strategy of stable predictable cashflow.