Your PMA should have defined every element that went wrong in your story. 

Pre-Payment Penalty: If they have one, is it a flat penalty or does it have step down component like 6% of loan amount if paid off in year 1 / 5% if paid of in year 2 / 4% if paid off in year 3 / 3% if paid off in year 4 or is there a loan yield maintenance fee if paid off earlyUse of Funds: What are the funds being used for?

I personally would not invest in an emerging market if there were no value add component to the deal.  

Even so, the ACS is really the most reliable data source I can think of. https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/ACS/16_5YR/B07007/0500000US19153.16000PIf it helps, here’s a link to a table with components of population change in Iowa during this decade.

It has a small mixed-use component that works with FHA funding. 

For me a cash flow of a couple hundred isn't a good deal, but this is my target market and you'll have to define what you consider good. 

Define default and what happens if you go into default (ie. exercise their rights per the deed of trust which spells out how they take control or sell the property)This isn't everything but it's a start.

Even if you could predict when, and even if you when you were in it, you are missing deals that you could be making...waiting for something that is hard to define until years after it has happened.Here's my tagline at the bottom of all my emails:  "The things that come to those who wait, are the things that are left behind, by those that get there first".

What bases are you currently interested in and what would you define as your criteria for decent real estate markets?

$150-$225 in denver for a spec selling in the $1-2 million range... but then again it depends how you define construction costs.