If the trend continues, I’ll be a genius, if it stalls and stays the same, I’ll be ok, if it tanks, I’ll be a dumb speculator. 

It's one of those situations where a bird in hand may be better than speculating.

Significant rent decreases are rare.It is the speculators that have the most risk in a downturn.  

Obviously this is just speculation but to me it seems like they just dont know what to do with it.

Our model isn't based on speculative buying and needing the market to go up in order for our investment to work. 

I would not say anything until you are under contract otherwise it is just speculation. 

However, I just have some speculation when it comes to the closing costs.

The midwest has fantastic cap rates for retail (7% cap for an excellent anchored center 9% cap if your buying in a more speculative environment) I hope I answered your question about retail.

I completely recognize that everything shared is pretty much speculative but would love hear thoughts regardless!

Although it's dangerous to speculate, I don't see the costs going any lower and new homes, although nicer, are going to push the rest of the market up.David Stewart - ReeceNichols Agentmessage me for contact info