Either way you can’t  predict those dynamics and purchase and sale transactions in my opinion should put a lot more weight on price.

I do not plan to predict when will the market turn down, nor will sell anything before it actually turn down.  

If there are no comps I would predict an appraisal problem which will lilely lead to a forced price reduction when it is under contract.

Their income and expenses and problems are pretty predictable.  

We're not talking SF-over-the-last-10-years appreciation, but I'm interested in predictable investment returns, not gambling.

Looking for help predicting expenses (like maint/cap, insurance, cleaning, management, etc.) and revenue (I've computed my own rental season curve, but I'd love someone to validate that for me).What I'm looking at is an MLS duplex that *I think* would rent for a total of $4300/wk at peak, at a least price of $519K.Thanks,Chaz

As you know, we have a very thorough tenant screening and background check but we cannot predict the future of a tenant.

I was caught in that problem and it is such a headache that I could not have predicted.

If you are buying and holding it is a smart plan to use a fixed loan product in order to have stable, predictable income. 

Obviously, I don't subscribe to the mantra that you can't predict price appreciation.