Great post Golan,I have always been of the belief that appreciation is more speculative and unpredictable.Nobody has a crystal ball to predict the future.Cashflow is more "certain" and based of the numbers as they are today rather than forecasting what might happen in the future.You take the income vs the expenses, plus including a margin of safety for misc expenses and then you look at the bottom line.If the numbers make sense, the deal is worth pursuing further."

Finding quality trades people today has become a challenge . . . the good ones are booked and the bad ones are plentiful. 

You could trade all of your working hours and get a deal after 2, 3, or 4 months.

Normally, the cap on seller concessions is 6% of the sale price, but that’s not the case for commercial loans.Here are the trade-offs:5-year stepped prepayment: A typical residential loan at this price point isn’t allowed in the state, but with commercial, those rules are different.20-year amortization: This means higher payments, but it forced me to ensure my deal works under strict terms.Interest rate: It came in at 7.9%, not stellar but still good.Overall, I’m pretty proud of this deal.

@Matt Mainini… last couple years have been good for the trades in SA.

You're trading out a 4/2 and 45 minutes for a 3/1 and 1.5 hours? 

These mortgage bonds trade with a spread, or higher amount of rate/return needed, versus the Treasury bonds to account for the higher risks.

Everything I see forecasts continued strong population and job growth for Florida which is the backbone of demand for residential housing especially rentals. 

You know it’s funny back when I was flipping in dc pre covid, I was always amazed at the prices and in the back of my head was like I cannot believe people are paying 800-1 million to be in a tiny rowhome in a frankly pretty rough area, now of course everyone who didn’t grow up here throught it was just was the way it was, but growing up here I tried to explain to everyone just how bizzare it was that the city was so much more than then the burbs, (from 06 on there were entire areas that went up fourfold, where as the burbs were kind of flat for a decade) I won’t say I saw dc’s crash coming but it seemed so unnatural to me having grown up in the area, I also don’t think we’ve seen close to the bottom as far as urban real estate, as you said you can still trade a house in the city for one in the burbs but really given how urban living is + remote works, cities should be significantly less than an equivalent burb.

While trades like electric and plumbing are licensed here, GC are not licensed by the state.