It also seems like a huge gamble to operate if I don't know quite for sure the variables involved to make a place have 33% occupancy rate on the year vs 75% occupancy rate on the year.

Stocks is gambling. 

If you wing it you will fail.According to (my) data with my selected assumptions, up to $5K spend on mailers is a gamble.

Most investors buy to make money, it seems you want to buy for the sake of doing a deal.perhaps you just want the appreciation and you'll pay the bills with your career income, just know that's gambling and we are in an appreciation slump for potentially a few years.

I'm not saying that you should pursue something as a speculative gamble, but simply evaluate a realistic perspective of where the market is headed.

There is no promise rates will fall at any time ahead, that's a gamble and the three points then wasted money.

Were I a gambling man, and could find somebody to take me up, I'd bet on another extension.I doubt I could find anybody to bet the other way though, so it's probably just as well I'm not a gambling man.

Don't get me wrong; there are plenty of issues/problems/quirks that old houses have that new houses don't, and an old house can obviously have hidden problems and big repair/maintenance bills too...but, the point is: a brand new house is not a foolproof solution to repairs/maintenance (and in some cases, a brand new house can be a much bigger gamble than an older house).This is a particularly important lesson for inexperienced investors, who tend to be the most prone to "shiny object syndrome" (the tendency to let nice aesthetics distract from real, underlying issues).

I would not gamble on that unless you have done this many times & know the potential risks. 

- Listing price to buy: ~$700k a few months ago- Rent: $3.4k- Master lease up to 2yr- $10k initial nonrefundable deposit towards down payment- 15% of rent will go towards down payment - First month, security deposit, and $10k due = $16.8k In my opinion you are gambling in a market that is trending down.