Another risk variable of making a borrower having "skin in the game" is market corrections.

I don't see the variables to be calculated.

The big answer to your question however is that there is so much variability given all of the neighborhoods in the Tri-County area that you just need to look at listings, run your numbers, and eventually you will get the pulse of the market in order to find cash flow.

Is anybody out there seeing similar variables affecting your deal analysis?

After construction is done, you would refi the construction loan into a typical commercial loan, with typical commercial loan terms (no 30 year fixed, most likely 5 yr variable interest, 5 year balloon).  

I will be honest, this is a hard question to ask since there are so many variables, but any advice would be great :)

I suggest you calculate IRR of the investment in two scenarios with all other variables held constant except loan paydown (i.e. the variable you're interested in).

I would be eager to learn more about MOA and all the variables considered in that evaluation!

The trade off for that is twofold; a static interest rate for the next thirty years, vs a slightly lower, but variable interest rate on a HELOC that could be 15% in five years, which would likely bankrupt most investors. 

All of the local banks are telling me that any financing options available would only be for a variable rate commercial loans.