Even when I "lost" money in 2008 during the great recession, it was simply unrealized losses that recovered over the next few years.  

Anyone that's been doing this since before the recession operated in that world, I have not and don't think I'd have been a good fit for that world.I know a few realtors that gave up on lending and became realtors specifically because they could not be competitive in a world that rewards crummy behavior.

Think of the early 2000's recession.  

Ask those who lost their shorts in the recession.

The ones that do great are buying deeply discounted properties and adding value or gambling on price appreciation in great RE markets that have benefited from the market rebound following the recession.  

It's hard to rent new luxury apartments in a recession.  

I expect a pretty bad recession and I expect some price drops. 

I am looking to purchase my first duplex (which is also my first home purchase) and I was curious if I should wait for the recession to take a hit on the market.

How do you think my theory of 2.75-3% 30-year fixed mortgage in the next recession now?  

But historically, all indicators are that we are ripe for a recession.