We all know the issues with trying to predict appreciation but with how he says (and I’ve seen) that land is disappearing in the area I feel confident that 5% is a solid number to use.Between cash flow and appreciation, I believe a person would be coming up 21,000 a year.

Checkout this post from Rob Whiting, CEO of Boom (Baselane partner for rent reporting), explaining his predictions for the adoption of rent reporting.https://www.linkedin.com/posts/robwhiting_big-headline-out-f...

The goal is to determine whether the government accurately adjusts DoD Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) rates and to develop a predictive model to calculate possible future BAH rates for specific locations.We have pulled rental data from Zillow and historical BAH rates from the DoD.

I think one of the biggest risks you face with Cash Out is interest rate risk.It's really difficult to predict where interest rates will be in a 2-5 year time period, so it can also be challenging to model out future mortgage rates.

As I predicted failures showed up in 2-3 years. 

Refinancing Options If you’re planning to hold the property long-term, refinancing the seller carry into a more stable, fixed-rate loan could give you more predictability.

If you have a stable asset, predictable returns, and a lease structure that’s well-known and well-documented, a regular market valuation might make sense.

Speaking from the Arizona perspective, we are experiencing continued growth, attracting lots of new residents (Californians choose Texas and Arizona as their top 2 places to move).Here's an economic forecast:https://www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/economy/2019/12/11/arizona-state-university-annual-economic-forecast-predicts-slower-growth/4398074002/Not sure where you are getting your "low rent" thoughts, maybe compared to CA.

I have to admit, my prediction a month ago of a more restrictive Fed was wrong.

Market Appreciation is the least predictable, but historically, where you will make the most money.