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All Forum Posts by: Zachary Cain Humphrey

Zachary Cain Humphrey has started 8 posts and replied 188 times.

Post: STR Free land / cabin build opportunity in Red River Gorge

Zachary Cain HumphreyPosted
  • Investor
  • Kentucky
  • Posts 202
  • Votes 77

🚨**Seeking equity partners**🚨

hello my name is Zach! Short term rental investor and building cabins in the Red River Gorge (Campton) KY. 

I have a 1550 sq ft A frame 3/2 in Campton Ky (victory falls). My first contractors committed insurance fraud, stole over half of phase 1 build payment and left. Between the bad work they did and money they stole I'm looking at needing 100k - 120k to finish this build. The goal originally is build and hold as a full time STR with air dna estimating a 3/2 in this market to gross 60-70k / year conservatively.

- I am currently the sole owner in this deal.

- the lot is 1.74 acres allowing up to two builds per acre. This is an option for equity partner to qualify for loan and build their own cabin on my lot (hence my claim to offer “free land” to a partner)

- construction loan of 285k has been spent

- needing 100-120k to complete the project

- pre build appraisal was 385k, comps support an appraisal of around 400k for this home on completion 

- market is highly desired by STR investors and my a frame will be one of the most unique in this market less than 15 minutes from Natural Bridge State Park entrance.

- unfortunately my first contractors refused to provide receipts so I do not have a record of funds for the first 136k spent on this cabin. But would be happy to discuss in detail the situation or provide details as needed.

- my STR experience involves ownership of 3 rental STR arbitrage units, purchasing of 3 acres in the gorge and building this first cabin with plans for more future development.

DETAILS PROVIDED BELOW… 

🚨ESTIMATED BUDGET EXPENSES FOR COMPLETION OF PROJECT:

1. Exterior siding install – have not gotten a contractor quote on this as they have not installed Quality Edge siding before2. Windows install – all windows have been purchased and are on the build site. Current contractor Kyle Murray (Unique Contracting frenchburg ky says around 10,000$ for all windows install)3. Alside soffit and addition foe wood siding – 7000$4. Septic remaining due – 4,400$5. Well install – 10,000$ quote from well installer6. HVAC remainder due – 10,220$7. Finishing electrical – yet to be determined75-80% of electric is completed8. Finishing plumbing – yet to be determined75-80% of plumbing completed9. Flooring – est. $7,00010. Insulation – 7500$11. Toilets – 500$12. Tile shower x2 tile – 8,000$13. Kitchen install including cabinets, countertops, island 4x6 ft. – 10,000-12,000$14. Staircase in the house (free floating metal beam staircase)- price yet to be determined, current contractor has metal fabricator in his group our plan doesn’t really work without using some variation of this. Solid wood steps would block too much of the limited interior space the floor plan has. My guess is 5-8,000$ for beam and labor.15. Exterior deck railing – 3000$16. Paint / primer – 5000$17. Base board/trim – 4000$18. Fireplace – yet to be determined, likely leaning toward electric fire place, have notdecided on where to install and what budget should be for this. Est. 4000-5000$19. Bunk beds wood framing for game room – 2300$20. Trex decking (toasted sand) for exterior deck – 7000$21. Radiant heat floor in downstairs bathroom including heating element, thermostat, radiant heat matt – 1300$22. Shims/frames/ casement – 1000$23. Outlets/ switches – 600$24. Finish for bathroom – 2200$25. Driveway stone / 57’s – 3000$26. Water filter for well system (necessary due to heavy soil) – 1500$

Estimated cost to complete for materials – 100,000$

Estimated cost of labor quote from Richard Osborne of Osborne Pro Builders is 60k in labor/GC. If I GC myself will cost approx 25k for labor for total cost to complete at 125k. 

🚨 Lot 51 Victory Falls, Campton Ky Rev/Exp projection

A. Expenses –

Mortgage – 285,000$ at 7.25% interest – 2000$/month

Prop Tax – 200$

Insurance – 200$ / month STR specific plus regular insurance (this is estimated high)

Septic – 0$

Well water – 0$

Public Electric – 250$ / month avg est.

HOA fee – 42$

Hospitable Pms – 40$

Pricelabs – 20$

Security system – 75$

Trash – 100$

Wifi – 100$

Clean supplies – 150$

Total expenses per month: 3177$ per month including PITI

Total expenses per year: 38,124$

B. Revenue Projections –

Supporting comps give a reasonable gross Revenue projection number of low, medium, high (range). Year one of operation it is likely the property will perform on the low end, gaining speed as marketing on social mediapicks up and the listing gains traction on OTA’s like Airbnb.

1. Low – 60,000$.

60,000 – 38,124 = 21,876$ net

2. Medium – 70,000$

70,000 – 38,124 = 31,876$ net

3. High – 80,000$

80,000 – 38,124 = 41,876$ net

C. Final Expense (Cleaning) –

Cleaning fee on average for a 3 bed / 2 bath of similar size would be 150$ / clean. With an average length of stay (ALOS) of 3 days at 65% occupancy we would be looking at 79 cleaning turns costing 10,280$ / year paid to cleaner/cleaning company.

- Now subtracting that from our net above at 60,000-80,000 gross revenue numbers we get a net income of 11,596$ / year net income final at 60,000$ gross income after all anticipated expenses subtracted.

- 21,596$ estimated at 70,000$ gross final income.

- 31, 596$ estimated at 80,000$ gross final income.

🚨OPTIONS FOR THIS DEAL… IDEAS

Current bank loan amount is 285,000$. Pre build appraisal came back at 385,000$. Nearest comp was a 2/2 at 1550 sq feet sold for listed on MLS at 400,000$.

Option 1 - Bank will give 75% LTV, meaning of that 100,000$ equity I could pull out somewhere around 70,000$ to pay capital partner back for bringing capital to complete the project within 1 year or less. Money needed (see above) to complete the project is estimated at 170,000$.

Ideally looking to partner in a manner whereby I retain at least 50% of the equity with a buyout option later to buyback the remaining equity at some point. Cash flow has to be negotiated in such a manner as that it makes sense to the capital investor. If 70,000$ is paid leaving 100,000$ and net income is in the medium range of 22,000$ then it would take 4.5 years for a capital investor to break even. I do have one contractor highly rated and has been working for people that got into the situation imin and he estimates he would likely be closer to the 50-60,000 on labor costs to complete which would obviously change all the numbers to making a payback of closer to 3 years plus interest with medium listing performance. There are comps supporting a gross income of 80,000$ as likely. Meaning im looking to partner with someone to 3-5 years to finish and run this property as a full time STR with buyout option on the back end for the equity and cash flowgiving them 50% ownership outright minimum and cash flow. I would be the management partner running the air bnb daily activities and listing management.

Option 2 – The issue is how to make this deal in the “positive” again. With a payback period of 3-5 years for 170,000$ plus interest, for many that is too long a time. One fix for this is that I add a partner onto the deed of the land the cabin sets on. They then would build another cabin ground up on the same lot adjacent to my aframe that’s needing finished. So, the partner could build another cabin, complete it. Then on the re appraisal of the now two cabins and entire lot would be higher, on the refi once the second cabin is done we could pull the capital out to finish my a frame in question. This is essentially a “FREE LAND” opportunity in a high demand market like the Red River Gorge / Natural Bridge State Park. In adding a partner to the deed so they could build, we could raise the total appraisal value to give us that needed capital to complete the first a frame in question. And building a second cabin would take a year, not 3-5 years to do. This would create more equity, alleviate the negative number nature of my a frame, and create a second rentable property in a high value area. This is the option I am most hoping to propose to investors who may be willing to partner with me.

Zachary Humphrey RN

Bluegrass Rentals of Eastern KY LLC

606-923-2788

Post: STR Regret Stories...

Zachary Cain HumphreyPosted
  • Investor
  • Kentucky
  • Posts 202
  • Votes 77

I regret doing rental arbitrage. I wish I would have saved my money a little longer and invested it into an owned property. Something I could have built equity with. Biggest mistake I feel that Ive made so far. 

I had 3 rental arbitrage units. Two apartments and one house. The apartments were not pet friendly. The house was. I did notice at times more cleaning demand with the pet usage but not much. Overall I know I secured many bookings because I was one of the few whole house listings allowing pets in my market... it made a difference. But my apartments also did well even though they were not pet friendly. It is pretty well known that the more boxes you can check off on your air bnb listing far as what amenities and features you provide the better. This would include checking the box that says you allow pets. 

Unfortunately what I have found is even if your listing says no pets, some guests will either disobey intentionally or accidently and bring their dog anyway. 

In my pet friendly home I did not allow cats or exotic pets. 

Post: STR insurance what do you use?

Zachary Cain HumphreyPosted
  • Investor
  • Kentucky
  • Posts 202
  • Votes 77

One company I have seen success with being used is Waivo Insurance for STR.

Post: AirDNA calculator question for STRs

Zachary Cain HumphreyPosted
  • Investor
  • Kentucky
  • Posts 202
  • Votes 77
Quote from @John Underwood:

Cleaning and taxes should both be pass through. So they should not affect you affordability numbers.


If cleaning fees are included in the gross revenue projections, but it is a pass through expense, would that affect your actual returns if you mistakenly calculated your ROI on gross numbers that technically included pass through expenses like cleaning fee?

Post: Get Out Now

Zachary Cain HumphreyPosted
  • Investor
  • Kentucky
  • Posts 202
  • Votes 77
Quote from @Collin Hays:

I've been thinking about expressing my sentiments for several weeks on this forum. As a Property Manager and STR investor, it's a hard thing to do. I still feel like investing in vacation rentals can be an outstanding investment, but you've got to score a good deal when you buy, and you cannot be counting on a fresh buy for much, if any, positive cash flow unless you scored a crazy good buy.  

This is post is intended for 90 percent of the investors out there that bought a vacation rental in 2021 and 2022.  Most paid way too much, based on multiples that were based on weird years.  You are going to have an opportunity this spring and early summer to GET OUT.  Things are NOT going to be getting better in this space for a while.  Here is where we are:

1.  Extreme oversupply of STRs in a bunch of markets, due to irrational exuberance and massive overbuilding in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

2.  Lower volumes, retreating to 2018 and 2019 levels.

3.  Investors are in a huge squeeze right now because the "new normal" numbers aren't working.

4. High(er) interest rates are way exacerbating the problem - if the numbers aren't working for YOUR deal at 3.5% APR, they sure don't work for anyone else looking to buy your home at rates that are twice that.

5.  As the pinch hits harder, investors trying to sell are going to find themselves deep underwater - owing money at closing and a whole lot of it.

6.  Many of these houses will either be sold short, or go back to the bank, 2010-11 style.  They will eventually end up in the hands of an investor, at a price where the dollars DO work.  And that new investor is going to be able to rent his/her rental at rates way lower than the previous owner could afford to do.  This will put FURTHER pressure on the owners who paid way too much.

So...if you are NOT in a good financial position with your rental - if you are relying on it for INCOME and things have gone sideways, GET OUT THIS SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER.  Prices are going to do nothing but go south for a while.  It's going to be 2027-28 before things are sorted out.  

That's my two cents.  Sorry guys.  Just telling how it is from my view.


 Before getting out, each investor needs to take a long look at the underperforming property to see what can be done to make it perform. If you invested 10-20k back into the property how much better would it perform on gross revenue?

If the answer is you can do nothing to make it better... then most certainly get out. 

Your post is spot on for where the STR market is for majority of the country.

KY is still one of the best places in the country right now, where despite interest rates being what they are.... purchase prices are low enough and revenue high enough to make cash flowing rentals. 

Again, you got to know where and WHY your investing there (make it about the numbers).... as any business model should be. 

Post: Out of state rentals

Zachary Cain HumphreyPosted
  • Investor
  • Kentucky
  • Posts 202
  • Votes 77
Quote from @Rafal Soltysek:

I am based in Las Vegas ,NV  -- was thinking about acquiring some rental properties in mid-west, possibly TX, AR, TN as well....what your take on it?- if you had to pick one location/state - what would that be?,... thanks raf


Rather than looking at certain states, I would be looking at specifically what towns in those states. "Submarkets" in other words. Pockets of higher nightly rates (STR), or higher rent to purchase price numbers (LTR).

Arkansas has some great locations , hot springs for example. TN can be good again depending on what your looking for and where you are buying. 

Ive only done investing in KY, would be happy to discuss this market here. 

Post: Honest Discussion on STRs

Zachary Cain HumphreyPosted
  • Investor
  • Kentucky
  • Posts 202
  • Votes 77

They bought property in Destin florida and are breaking even its simple... they very likely over paid and have purchased in a boom market with high interest rates. Therefore the cash flow is gone in some of these extremely expensive markets. 

You can make nearly any place perform depending on the purchase price and cost of debt. 

Secondary markets is where I would be looking now for cash flowing rentals.

Primary markets like Destin or Smoky Mountains many owners buy there because they travel there but those markets and prices just arent competing with nightly rates. It doesnt mean people arent making great cash flow in those markets, but depending on their purchase price, location, debt service etc their financial position may be very different from yours if you bought into the same market today. 

Yet research is research and there are still many cash flowing STR markets.

Think Maine, KY, Arkansas for some markets still with great cash flow pockets and far better purchase prices. 

Based off my assessment of your air bnb listing overall it needs updates , it looks outdated. What I would do, based off budget, is update as much as you can of the interior space. Change light fixtures, accent walls with pops of paint color / board baton wall or two, updated decor. 

By sprucing up the updates needed first thatll be your best bet to demand a higher daily ADR and more revenue if your trying to increase performance on a budget. 

If you have money to invest back into the property, could you have a putting green installed on the other side of the pool room wall between the pool and that white fence? If so, that alone would offset you being short the 12k per year. 

Howver, ive been in that squeeze before like your saying and it is not fun at all. So I understand you may not want to keep holding the property. I would suggest investing back into the property before I would sell it at a loss. At least by updating it if you should go to sell later you may get higher offers reducing or even eliminating your risk of a loss at sale. 

Post: How to structure partnership?

Zachary Cain HumphreyPosted
  • Investor
  • Kentucky
  • Posts 202
  • Votes 77
Quote from @Harris Vuadens:

Want to ask for advice. I am part of a group of 4 individuals who want to start flipping houses. I am in Finance and know how work with number. I also have funds to invest. Two of the other individuals are in the trades and willing to do some of the work and also use network for contractors. They may have some funds to invest as well. Last individual is a retiree who has money to invest but wants to be a silent partner. This will be all our first time doing a partnership to invest real estate. How should we structure the partnership so that it’s fair and equitable? 


 Meet with a real estate focused attorney who has done contracts like this before. Discuss everything. What happens if a partner dies? What happens if a partner wants out in 2 years? What happens if a partner is not doing their portion of the deal?

Dont go off of hand shakes and good faith. 

Have it all in writing via a signed contract by all parties and discussed in the presence of a lawyer to protect each of you and the group in general.