All Forum Posts by: Scott T.

@Mike Bolen  Hey neighbor :-) And how 'skewed' do you think the inventory and demand is, due to the fires, 1.5 plus years ago? (I see no inverse relationship, per se,' with the stock market...) Demand should have been higher due to the "lack of inventory," and concerns such as Santa Rosa increasingly turning into a congested mess filled with to many 'undesirables' that recently moved northward, etc. And I saw 5155 inhabitants on the roster when last census was taken in Calistoga, so I presume the main 'growth' has more to do with the 50% plus 'immigrant' population (aka: higher birth rates) than SRers, to SDers, moving- in? Not sure about Napa, St. Helena, American Canyon, etc.?? I would presume south Napa county is the 'hottest' place to buy for rentals, or doing flips and/ or creative terms, etc.??? Although I'm 35 minutes from north SR metro, and close to Healdsburg, Napa, etc. And thank you, for sharing the chart.

@William C.   Perhaps NOT? That is unless they wisely (and consistently) EXIT before the next correction? Or better yet, buy -n- hold with multifamily and/ or commercial, and leverage utilizing "creative terms" using lease option as the primary "exit strategy" for SFRs... and of course, don't own their own residence in their own name, for decades??? (And I don't "smoke..." although after what I've learned in the past decade in particular about how the world really WORKS... maybe I should start, and/ or take- up 'drinking?!' Cheers! :-)

@Michael Kay  Mike, the RE game is much like every other market (casino) you want to "get IN and back OUT (before sitting along the sidelines and watching the fireworks drama, from a leather easy chair... until AFTER the CHTF again, before going back to work BUYING... at a hefty 'discount!') in order to ultimately 10- 100X your long term GAINS (presuming you don't wait to long to RESELL... short to long term, in a given market 'cycle?') because otherwise you will then ne holding the IOU beyond when the price DROPS... then it will take several years for the so- called "recovery" to reach say 2014 vs. 2008 again... and all the while you are paying 3X the value of that property, over perhaps 30- years. AND... if you resell in say 15/30... you just paid the INTEREST and the payments continued right along that charitable continuum... where it took 15- 30 to "break even" on your so- called"investment," depending upon where (precisely) you 'invested' your time, money and energy?!? 

So while it's important to buy the right thing, in the right place, at the right time... getting OUT is the most important FACTOR... as it matters NOT if you did everything else right, and then ended- up STUCK in paper DEBT after the correction! (Not my "realization," but I most certainly SEE and understand the 'logic,' of it!!!) Of course this isn't a 8- 10 cap BnH multifamily apartments analogy, it's more of a SFR scenario, but that is what 98% OWN?! My Best :-) Scott

@Jay Hinrichs Seriously though, Jay... at this point I just need someone(s) to help me FUND what I've planned- out on and off for the past 2.5 years (using mostly lease options, as the primary 'exit strategy...') and WE'LL BE BILLIONAIRES. (Because the NAR / MLS cannot COMPETE with my USPs to "mission..." The numbers, don't LIE... and offering to save someone 10- 15% or more while say moving a property that's UPSIDE DOWN and/ or has 2nd- 5th, lien holders, speaks volumes. (Hint: My 'plan' goes way BEYOND Prefores, SubTos, AITDs, Owner (100% equity) and Seller (underlying loan/s) financing, doing $50k.- 100k. SLO deals and Cooperative LO reassignments, back to the seller.) And as mentioned two years ago... it definitely INCLUDES those $500k. - $5mil plus abode dealings, etc. AFTERALL, LOs have proven to be a SOLUTION in Commercial dealings as well as residential (particularly during 'corrections' and in BUYER markets) since I don't know when??? But what do I know, I'm just a "disruptive idea" guy. :-) Scott

@Luke Carl   "Buy -n- hold," by Millennial's, advocacy?! Hmmm... No comment. 

(HERDling 'mentality,' is FOREVER the +/- 50%!? ;-)))

@Michelle Christensen Check- out Ken Wade's "Housing Alerts" data, if you aren't yet familiar? There is already data going back longer than 2- 3 quarters for parts of Seattle, Portland, LA, SD, etc. metros, but again there are always 'emerging' and 'high- end' sectors within a given area... that will "defy the (local) trend," to a POINT... Wade's main argument seems to be: "GONE are the days of national, regional and state, county and even METRO centric, trends." (I suspect this was HISTORY even before "computer modeling" became recently "available to the masses..." and the "industry disruption, shake- outs" won't bypass the elite's main "cash cow," either... now that anyone with a computer can access MLS to this level of "Big Data." (i.e. At least for the foreseeable future, anyway!?)

Also check- out PropStream, PropertyRadar, REIpro, etc., as well as ListSource, ReboGateway, et al. (Hence WHY I plan to be AHEAD of what follows, NEXT... rather that just: "following trends and cycles, with the think a year or two ahead," mentality... because the MLS and NAR, etc. near 'monopolies...' clearly aren't HOLDING! ;-)

@Jay Hinrichs Listed on the MLS??? Southern Lake county, for prefores? Owner and Seller financing contracts?? And/ or lease option deals??? (I do recall you suggested targeting Lake county for lease options two years ago... however I then relocated to Phoenix metroland for a year... and got "side- tracked...") I plan to target (mainly) $1million average homes... as those people tend to have better "comprehension" of the concept, clauses and contractuals... and I'd rather gross $100k. on a Sandwich LO or Prefore (and pocket listed?) 'flip...' than half or a third of that for the supposed 'risk,' or taking the less 'ethical' approach of "raising the asking price" by 5- 10% just before a 'correction,' so it won't ever 'appraise...' even if they go from "pre- qualified," to "pre- approved?!" (Again, aside from "making a buck..." my GOAL is truly "helping people for a 3x WIN..." vs. cow- towing. And I am not a broker, agent, etc. It will be interesting to see what the BAR franchised attorneys think of my agreements, in lieu of the "legal precedents," in various localities. (Particularly after I get past the "first stage" of the LARGER nationalized, plan. ;-)

@Samuel Ksiazkieicz 

Sam, Also check out REI Guard, from NREIG dot com.

@Bradley Kirschbaum  Looks like MOST of the major city metros on the West Coast are already leveling OFF too in 2018- 19, except parts of the SFO Bay area and a few others??? (i.e. In general... Seattle, Portland, LA, SD, etc. ARE already!) 

@Jay Hinrichs Hey Jay, I was reading that a year ago approx. 40 of the primary 300 plus (or 200 or more they monitor) US markets were already showing major signs of a 'correction...' but of course nearly ALL of those main metros also have micro demographics therein with neighborhood market maturation stats that are not "the average" brush bristles the faux media tends to paint the "herd" into the corral with, about every decade to get them to 'stampede' for the exit doors, only to get 'slaughtered,' time, and again! (And some areas will mostly remain up, down, or 'correct' up to 50% plus either way, so knowing what to be in or not, where, when and why (so you realize when to EXIT) are all valid concerns! 

I believe I have a better 'approach' than this "buy -n- hold" mentality that remains almost entirely beholden to whims of a highly controlled and regulated "casino play..." just like the rest of their "what goes UP, must come down, roller coaster" games. And like ANY 'commodity,' homes that are bought and resold like clockwork ultimately can 10- 100X say a 15- 30 year play, with 3:1 interest, to principal... so it amazes me that ANYONE is still buying, holding and "renting" SFRs, in the 21st Century?! (Unless they EXIT prior to every correction. And good luck, with that!) 

I know noone wants to tie- up $500k. plus into the aforementioned in "investor unfriendly" California, however if they opted to "think outside the box..." they might even 'rethink' their perspective, in lieu of what I'm envisioning??? If you know of anyone that would consider acquiring properties in the North Bay, etc., I just rented a place in Calistoga, last month. (I couldn't stand the heat in the Valley of to much sun... so I came back to Cali, for now, and Sonoma and Marin counties were a total "rat race..." so I am for now, in a town with minus 6000 people?)

The pre- foreclosures here (Napa, Sonoma, Marin counties, the Bay Area, Sac, etc.) are definitely intriguing me, especially after the additional things I've leaned (and since thought of, that relate) recently regarding what to do with these "little to no equity" homes x10 - 15 million, just in the US. I need to find a few (then more) "private lenders" and utilize OPM while paying them well to do some 60- 120 day deals (i.e. Cash resales, vs. lease purchase deals) so if you see anything that looks 'intriguing' near me to check- out and/ or know of any investors (for either California north, south and/ or in NV, AZ, etc.) I suspect the ROI will exceed the alternatives the vast majority of these guys are making, elsewhere (i.e. Like 99% of them...) precisely because I'm not your average "cud chewer, grazing on conformity..." until they close my CQV 'trust' account. ;-) Let me know if you want to know more about what I'm eluding to here? ATB :-) Scott T.