Originally posted by @Chester Transo:
Originally posted by @Ben Leybovich:
I agree with @Nick B. - 8% mortgages are unlikely unless the economy is firing on all cylinders. And in SF Bay, due to scarcity, equity and rents are going to continue to climb. This is one of the pockets where the market bubble is rather isolated from realities which exist everywhere else :)
Thanks Ben,
So is the consensus then that there is zero interest rate risk on the horizon that we would need to plan for in our exit strategy in say, 5 years or is there a small but manageable risk, or a larger but manageable risk, etc.
Well, I for one.. am not on board with this if that is the concenus.
First, kudos to the OP. Great topic and I love the call for analysis.
I think that the scenario he envisions is indeed a possible problem. The economy is starting to improve. I don't see the Fed keeping interest rates at zero forever. (And more to the point, we are closer to the end of the zero interest rate cycle than the beginning.)
Yes, the Fed only controls short term rates. Yes, long term rates do not move in lock step with short term. But they are not unrelated.
One of the things I have always liked about REI is that there are no margin calls. But what the OP is referencing here is something akin to that. It is also something that I have referenced in the past: matching the duration of your assets and liabilities. And it's definitely a potential problem with commercial loans.
In this case, you want to keep the apartment complex "forever" but your commercial loan has a 10 year call on it. so you are indeed at the mercy of the interest rate market sometime between now and 10 years from now.
One more note... the OP makes no mention of rents in his post. Because to a large extent... it doesn't matter. The cap rate and interest rate movements have the potential to blow away any rent increases.
Commercial loan explosions have been predicted for a quite a few years already. Have not happened. Maybe this one won't either. But to dismiss it out of hand seems dangerous to me.