Quote from @Andy Sabisch:
There is no formula that fits all markets and price points . . . I hate when people look for that magic formula (not what you were asking but bear with me).
You make your money when you buy not when you sell holds true in any market. If you buy at the right price and gauge the direction of the market (how much of a swing do you anticipate) and what will the material cost / holding cost be worst case you can make money in today's market. Expect another rate hike and see interest rates near 9% or better in 6 months. See how many buyers the hikes have taken out of the market already and see if your project will still sell in 6 months at higher rates. Be careful about over zealous agents that give you a pie in the sky number and then say you have it priced too high and need to drop the price. Find an agent that knows the market, has dealt with investors and can help you forecast market directions - we have one that is worth her weight in gold with the intel she can provide.
We are very selective on projects we consider with where the market is and where it is heading . . . hopefully post-November we will have a better idea where things are heading . .. for now, we have picked up rentals as sellers are panicking and the numbers still work with the 6.5% - 7.5% interest rates we are getting on oans
I agree with @Andy Sabisch about making money when you buy. That holds true in literally any market, good or bad. When we are running our numbers and analyzing deals, we are being ultra-conservative on the ARV. Since there is uncertainty with the Fed raising rates, elections coming up, inflation, etc. we are baking in a big buffer on the ARV. If recent comps support a property selling for $400,000 we would likely knock that down to $350,000 and work backwards from there.
Obviously this market sucks and is changing, but honestly, this is the first time in years where we've felt we have the upper hand as buyers. We buy everything off market directly from sellers and we've always felt fomo and were nervous about our offers. Today, we have zero fomo whatsoever. We are fine buying deals at our number, and if that doesn't work then best of luck. Seems like a lotttttt of buyers have dropped off so the ones remaining can truly get good deals.
Tl;dr - focus on NAILING your ARV and being on the conservative side, and you should be good no matter what kind of market you are in.