All Forum Posts by: William Arrington

FOMO... when you hear someone who has never talked about an investment or doesn't understand it start to talk about how they need to buy it... start looking for an exit or if your long term on something.. a helmet because its about to get rough.  Something to look at... china is having a massive layoff.  Their biggest housing firm evergreen layed off 50% of its people and is being propped up by the government and government officials are taking pay cuts there.  Its not looking good because that dragon can actually pull the entire world with it.  Always listen to what the fed is saying.  They will tell you what they are planning and its a bad idea to try to fight them... shift instead.  The fed has said just last week its cutting QE and raising interest rates.... that one has an obvious effect.  

Sorry to say it... your late.  You dont find the guy that can help you not pay extra taxes after you have sold the thing that triggers them... that's like jumping out of a plane to find the parachute guy. I hope the taxman is kind to you my friend.  

Feel we passed Euphoria around the start of covid and are solidly in the greed phase.  The fed has announced interest rates going up and QE ending sometime early next year.  Take away 120 billion a month and 2% bank transfer interest rates and we are about to see the stock market correct hard which will cause a panic sell which will push people barely keeping their property in default.  You can already see the anxiety setting in.  I still have 30 years left before I am "supposed" to retire so it doesn't scare me.  I might hold off on my 3rd AIRBNB purchase though... I have a feeling deals are about to start coming from those that pushed to far or what I hope isnt about to happen... older people being pushed out from higher tax bills from appreciation.  Always sad to see that.  

Its pretty easy to find the bubbles.  Population growth vs building permits then look at job growth to that area. San fran.. massive bubble.  Austin bubble.  Phoenix is surprisingly not a bubble.  The last full data available was from 2020 which showed about 106k population growth with 58k less build permits than growth.  You also have a huge tech hub starting there so demand should be ok for a while there because the people coming are typically higher earners.  Boston is a bubble.  Orlando's growth is basically even so housing prices are going to slowly deflate. Jacksonville is a bubble. Migration has slowed alot there.   Charleston is a massive bubble.  Permits and growth match but I believe the spike over the last 2 years has been 22% or so.  Montana is a massive bubble anywhere near missoula.  I believe its up 40% or so.  Houston is also in a bubble.  New yorks charts are pretty insane.  It was one of the few red charts I could find.  They are increasing housing by 108k over population growth per year.  I could go on but I think you guys get it.  Its getting really messy in alot of places.  Be careful and make sure your numbers are good before you buy 

Zinsser Bulls eye Primer... your welcome.  This creates a shell and does not need sanding.   As long as you get the grease off and use that everything sticks to it.  Then just pay to have it sprayed using BEHR acrylic-alkyd enamel paint.  The finish you will achieve is perfect.  We did our kitchen with this combo and my only regret is that I did not spray it.. caused a few drips but no brush marks at all

@Jim K. I would buy it. I am pretty good and knowing what things entail but a detailed book by people who have uncovered these problems in real life would be awesome

I think people should BRRR but as a live in honestly. It takes time out and even if you don't make money you end up with a decent place to live and knowledge for when you do a BRRR you don't live in. If I did not own home I would not know how to do half the stuff I will have to do the first week I close on my next property. I will say this though... know that bathrooms are some of the most expensive things you will try to do yourself and messing up a walk-in shower will eat every dime you thought you were saving. Do the demo yourself, Have a pro set the wet areas and tile them then you can do pretty much everything else yourself.

@Cody Gray

Send out chats to other local STR owners. Most won't answer but a few will. If I found a good cleaner then I would absolutely share that person as a reward for being amazing. Where I am setting mine up we have a person who checks guests on and out who lives on the mountain and he goes in behind them to check.

@Matthew Irish-Jones

Knob and tube wiring is easy to spot. Look in the attic or crawl. White insulator are pretty obvious at that point. Now if it's hidden by the previous owner (spiderwebbing) then thats where the issues start. If a home has knob and tube and you are still finding ground wires.. that wire is going to a metal drain for the house. Find the connection if you can. Or the easiest way is to scope the wall during the inspection.

Refinishing wood floors runs 1k to 3k so having to sand one room then refinish would eat that $770.  You can do home kits for about $100 if its not to bad.