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All Forum Posts by: Varun Parkash

Varun Parkash has started 14 posts and replied 120 times.

Originally posted by @Sam Shueh:

Suggest a reverse 1031 tax deferred exchange.  You can buy down by paying less income tax. 

Expect steep appreciation six years after an economic recovery is questionable.  It will be flat to decline the next 18-24 months. Perhaps you want to ascertain the area has ample jobs.  

 Thanks @Sam Shueh: for your insights. Reverse 1031 has some info. Steep appreciation in the current market seems harder than before. Buying in 2020 makes more sense if there is a possibility of a decline in prices making the deepest decline around 2023 (i am just assuming w/o any magic crystal ball). Area - Irvine, CA has plenty of jobs all around it and is always in high demand. Same goes for Austin, TX now with the firms. 

If anyone here can chime in and explain how strong is the White Collar Job Market of downtown Atlanta versus Austin will be helpful. 

Originally posted by @Andrew Johnson:

@Varun Parkash You're not wrong in the least and it's not far fetched to say that the bull run has been (in part) propped up by low interest rates.  But I just don't think about timing the market.  I think it's a fool's errand.  It could go up for another two years, plateau for two years, and then "crash" all of the way back to the 2015 level.  But what if interest rates have gone up and now debt is at 7% instead of 5%?  How will that impact your cash-flow?  Will it be the same in ATL as it is in Irvine?  Will there be a new tax code that eliminates the state income tax deduction and make Texas (and Austin) even more popular?  There are just simply too many variables for my little brain the process.    

That said, my timeframe is longer than yours so I don't really mess around with those variables.  When I buy the plan is always to keep it in perpetuity.  And the longer you hold the property the more valuable a 30-year fixed-rate becomes.  Not to mention, since I believe I'll go through a multitude of cycles the whole idea of "ups" and "downs" becomes less impactful.    

 @Andrew Johnson: Agreed! Interest rates definitely play a major role too. New tax code possibilities with the current administration is a tough future we all face and certainly any mortgage interest rate deductions will impact CA/NY landlords more than anyone else. Initially, I also thought of sticking around with a property for longer than 10 years, but I will have to evaluate priorities going forward before just selling-buying-selling etc. 

Originally posted by @Andrew Johnson:

@Varun Parkash This isn't a "bad thing" but it appears that you're probably focused a little too much on the past.  If someone bought in 2013 Austin, TX or 2012 Irvine, CA.  If you want to buy in the next 12 months it doesn't really matter what's happened in the last 5 years.  If you go back to 2012 you end up with even more skewed numbers because interest rates dropped so buyers got properties a.) cheaper, b.) were able to refinance to lower rates and c.) it never hurts to have Prop 13.  

That said, if you believe that "Austin is the next San Francisco!" then it's still probably a great time to get in that market.  I don't but maybe people do believe that.  All that really matters is what your opinion(s) are of the different area.  Austin could just be 5 years into a 20 year growth cycle.  Who knows.  Certainly not me.  You just have to make your educated bet.

And, not for nothing, but some of these does come down to priorities around cash-flow vs. appreciation and timelines.  If you have a 5 year timeframe it's different than a 50 year timeframe.  And someone buying a property to support them in retirement has different priorities that someone looking to replace their W2.  

I know this is all general "stuff" but that's why it's hard to give people advice.  Well meaningful advice anyway... 

 Appreciate your insights, @Andrew Johnson, I have no qualms about the past anymore as I was not into US Real Estate Market back then. Typically based on my research and readings, the market goes through a 7-year bull and 7-year bear cycles. 

Link: LA TIMES

However, with that being said, things have been very different with everything at record-high levels now, I have been hearing folks saying since 2015 that market is going to crash/collapse/tank and here we are an inch away from 2018 with no signs of tanking (although SF rental market is now claimed to have reached bubble popping stage).

In my research on Austin, TX: I am landing on a similar issue like CA, where I will negatively cash flow around 5-7k initially and I want to avoid it. With zip 30028 in GA, I will positive cash flow but then the key lies in whether Forsyth County, GA can ever grow and appreciate as fast as Austin, TX (with the likes of Metro-train to downtown Austin), Samsung, Apple, all IT firms in there. 

Decisions ..Decisions..Decisions ! 

At this point or in next 2-3 years, I don't see myself completely full-time into rental-estate. But any property I purchase, I am trying to keep it for 5-10 years timeframe, before either paying it off or sell it (1031 exchange) with equity and profit into something bigger.

Originally posted by @Andrew Johnson:

@Varun Parkash I guess just some general thoughts:

1.) $600K won't get you "Class A" in Irvine. Maybe a small condo but not an SFR and if you're in a condo you'll get killed on the dues. If you increase the budget and buy a "Class A" home in Irvine you'd have to what, double the budget? And you won't be able to get the rents to support that debt service. In either scenario, you lose money.

2.) Most of the time the only way to get cash-flow out of true Class A-ish properties is to fudge your numbers.  Put 50% down instead of 25% down, etc.  You can force cash-flow out of anything if you do that at the expense of metrics like cash-on-cash returns.

3.) My advice would be to stick with an area that you like.  If it's North Atlanta, great, go for it.  You could even buy in ATL and suburbs like Alpharetta that friends tell me are nice.  Just stick with the same metro area.  You don't really want to deal with 10 units in 10 different cities with 10 different PMs and 10 plane tickets/hotel reservations/rental cars/etc. to pay for when you check up on them.

So if I were in your shoes I wouldn't buy anything at the moment.  You seem to have ideas and an endpoint but not a lot of clarity around the strategy or path to take to get there.  The last thing you want to do is to buy another property that may (or may not) fit with your vision.   

 Thanks @Andrew Johnson for your responses.

1. I bought the condo property in Irvine, CA for 545K with 20% down and in my neighborhood, same property got sold last month for 585K. Under current circumstances, I cannot positive cash flow in Irvine. People who bought in 2011-2012 are easily +++ in cash flow

2. I cannot go beyond 20% down at the moment - for the second rental property - I am doing same 20% down. 

3. My future home/residence where I will live for good is going to be in Southern California (no questions there) - most probably an SFR in Irvine (in 1.5M-2M range). I was thinking the same as you suggested to pool a group of properties in one area rather than multiple in different spots - especially I guess if the appreciation potential is close to same amongst them. Example - for someone who bought in Austin, TX in 2013-2014 now enjoys a 30% appreciation. I don't know if GA state cities -Alpharetta - john creeks etc. had a similar hike. But in the longer run, it will be a hassle to deal with multiple property management firms etc. if I did diversify too much.

Anyone in here who is a part-time investor and have successfully managed 3-5 properties in 2 or different cities - please chime in. 

Right now, I have narrowed in on a newly built SFR in GA - 1/5th the HOA of Irvine, less property tax, good schools and rentability - so considering these factors - I am making the move to grab this second one - with vacancy and repairs + property management company fee etc., I may only make $100/month in a worst-case scenario. In the best case, I might be in 200-300$/month in positive cash flow after PITI. Considering how active investors here or people who bought in the 2011-2013 era are making lots of equity and positive cash flows, it is not the best bet, but I am open to hearing more suggestions.

Originally posted by @Dawn Brenengen:

@Varun Parkash  Have you considered the Raleigh market?  You can get better cash flow in other areas, but we are likely an appreciating market.

 Hi Dawn, i did think about it but did not do an in-depth market research on what's available out there and how much appreciation potential is there?

Originally posted by @Thomas S.:

I can not imagine any scenario where a 600K class A property will conceivably ever have positive cash flow. In High appreciation areas this is virtually impossible due to the fact that it is very rare that you can charge high enough rents to cover the expenses, debt repayment and cover opportunity value of dead equity. Keeping rents in step with equity growth is impossible. With 4% annual appreciation and cost of living increases you are looking at 7.5% annual rent increases with rents in the range of 6K per month. 

You are looking at purely speculative buys, forget about positive cash flow ever.

8% appreciation has been just luck, i am not expecting an attached condo to sky-rocket by any means, hence i am planning to sell it. Rents cannot be increased 7.5%, tenants will simply move out. Rent is barely going to touch 3k/month and that's it. My big mistake is i am paying high HOA, special city taxes, CA taxes and not able to enjoy any of the amenities as an investor. I played safe since it was my first purchase, but now have to sell and invest it in better properties - which as you rightly pointed out - cannot be at a selling price of 600k.

I am most probably looking at buying 3 or 2 properties with this 600k money as 1031 exchange.

Originally posted by @Dave Foster:

@Varun Parkash

Just wanting to make sure I understand.  You'll actively looking for a property now.  But in 6-8 months you will be looking to sell your current investment and 1031 to purchase a different property right?  

It almost sounded like you were wanting to 1031 into this property you're looking at now and that won't work since the statutory order is that you sell first and then buy.

Hi Dave, yes, at the moment I have selected a couple of properties (have pre-approval letter) out of which I will be putting in my earnest deposit on one of them - this will be my second rental investment. 

Once this is done, then I will be focusing on how much I can get the 1st Irvine property sold for (with tenants already in them) and have it advertised as a 1031 exchange. As far as my understanding, I will get 45-day window by IRS to do the closing on the new property(ies) that must be EQUAL or GREATER than the sold price of the Irvine property to get capital-gains-tax deferred.

As a safe measure, i will actively work to secure my new top 4-5  buying selections before I officially begin the escrow process of selling the Irvine one, that ways I will get more time if anything went wrong within the 45 day closing window as I will get (which begins from the day of sale being closed of Irvine property) more time and have couple of options to pick from.

In case i opt for two properties (each 300K), then i will have to be extra-diligent and pro-active.

Hello, I am an IT Entrepreneur, IT Consultant and a part-time real estate investor, just signed up with BP, bought a brand-new condo property in Irvine CA 2 years ago in zip 92618 (educated myself on everything by talking to folks - google - some forums) as an investment, but the numbers aren't working in my favor and I have negative cash flow (2 mo initial vacancy and high HOA + special city taxes) = Negative 11k (1st year) to Negative 3k (2nd year). I may start breaking even in my 5th year and still not have ++ cash flow. So, the only thing I am backing on is appreciation.

The property has appreciated 8% over 2 years and I can break-even if I sell it now. It is tenant occupied (who are excellent - have a great credit score - good jobs etc. & want to renew their lease for the 3rd time). Rent goes up 3.5% every year. 

Currently, I am getting close to buying a second rental investment property in North Atlanta region. Once I am done with the closing on the 2nd investment rental property - I will be seeking out to do a 1031 exchange with a budget of $550-$650K.

I am looking for Class A properties (preferably SFR) that are in good school districts, with zero to minimum HOA & in developing neighborhoods with considerable chances of appreciation. I am open to diversifying my portfolio across different states or follow the traditional approach of buying 2-3 units in one state/city (this is where expert analysis from seniors/experienced members will help).

I do plan to get my CA real estate license sometime in future but for now, my next 6-9-month focus is to grab this second investment property and then work on selling the Irvine property by doing a 1031 exchange to generate ++ cash flow. 

Long-term (5 years) focus is to establish a portfolio of 5 condos, 5 SFR's = a total of 10 Class A properties in prime areas.

I look forward to learning in this great community about rental investments, foreclosures, networking, getting the best loans etc. 

Thanks ALL !

Post: New Member from Cumming Georgia

Varun ParkashPosted
  • Jersey City, NJ
  • Posts 124
  • Votes 13
Originally posted by @Sam Bagwell:

I'm from Cumming as well!  Good luck finding a fully occupied 4-unit in our area; there just aren't that many small multifamily properties, especially in good repair and occupied.  Forsyth County is probably either going to be a massive multifamily property or a single family house.  If you go single family, with values as elevated as they are, you may be able to make a good equity play, but cash flow will be tight unless your down payment is huge.  If you're ever back in town on leave, let me know, and we'll talk shop a little bit.

 Hi Sam, how much has Cumming changed in past 1 year? Is it all inclined towards single family residences? What percentage of appreciation have you seen?

Post: Cumming in Atlanta market

Varun ParkashPosted
  • Jersey City, NJ
  • Posts 124
  • Votes 13

Plz check your inbox jasjeet