@Eliannah Linehan
Be careful how you are calculating CoC.
Cash Flow/Cash Invested.
In your unlevered example, your CoC return in Y1 is 15.38%, not 23%:
$22K Cash Flow (or NOI in this case since there is no Debt Service) divided by $143K Cash Invested.
If you put a loan on the property, you would subtract the Debt Service from the numerator since Cash Flow will no longer equal NOI, and you can subtract the loan proceeds (after closing costs) from the denominator since you will no longer have that cash tied up in the investment.
A couple other things I'm noticing:
1) You may want to factor in a CapEx/Replacement Reserves allocation to more accurately project your returns. I imagine this would be especially important with STR since you are providing furnishings.
2) The OER based on your numbers is only 32.4%. This seems low to me. Of course, I do LTR not STR so I'm not well-versed in expense ratios on STR. Does the property management include cleaning service? Do your income projections include whatever is charged by Airbnb, Vrbo, whatever?
3) Does the $50K for the structure include the foundation and sitework? The land must be cleared, the driveway installed, and I imagine some sort of foundation and drainage installed even if just frost walls and slab. If slab, it is a good idea to consider insulating it if you intend to rent it year-round as it can be a significant heat loss factor. Similarly, does the package include systems such as heating and A/C? Then there's engineering and permitting. Probably not a huge cost for those, but should be factored in for accurate projections nonetheless.
4) Have you done research to come up with your 65% occ assumption? I imagine that occupancy makes or breaks STR plays above or below the break-even point; so it would be a good idea to determine your break-even occupancy and then compare the annual occ of local comps to determine how realistic your assumptions are.
Happy investing,
Troy